News Politics Australian Politics Federal Election 2022 Leaked poll reveals Coalition’s triple hit in blue-ribbon seats
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Leaked poll reveals Coalition’s triple hit in blue-ribbon seats

Leaked polling is bad news for Liberal heavyweights

10 News First – Disclaimer

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Leaked internal Liberal Party polling has confirmed the worst fears for Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and his high-profile colleague Tim Wilson, just days before they face voters.

Obtained exclusively by 10 News First, the polling shows both men are in serious danger of losing their seats at the May 21 election – with another ‘safe’ Melbourne seat also perched on a knife edge.

The network said the polling, revealed on Friday, showed Mr Frydenberg is under grave threat from Monique Ryan in his seat of Kooyong, while Mr Wilson is likely to lose to another teal independent, Zoe Daniel, in neighbouring Goldstein.

Another blue-ribbon seat in the same leafy Melbourne suburbs, Higgins, is also in danger, according to Ten.

Ten News First said the internal polling showed Dr Katie Allen’s primary vote had fallen from 48 per cent to 44 per cent in Higgins since the 2019 election. She holds the seat with a margin of just 3.7 per cent.

On top of the leaked results, Ten said it had learned of focus groups conducted in Sydney’s west last night – which all largely favoured a change in government.

The most recent bad news for the three Melbourne Liberals follows a YouGov poll commissioned by The Australian this week that showed Mr Frydenberg – often touted as a future Liberal leader and even prime minister – would lose his seat on current numbers.

It also predicted voters would boot Mr Wilson from parliament, opting instead for Ms Daniel.

However, YouGov was more optimistic about the Coalition’s prospects in several Sydney seats where it also faces strong challenges from teal independents, including three in inner-Sydney – Wentworth, North Sydney and McKellar. The poll predicted they would remain with the Liberals.

YouGov also predicted Labor would win government with 80 seats in the lower house, leaving the Coalition with 63 seats and an eight-member cross bench.

That result was dismissed by former Liberal prime minister John Howard, who has been campaigning for the Coalition across the country..

“It has understated the Coalition vote,” Mr Howard told the Nine Network on Thursday.

“But it will be very tight. Anybody with any brain on our side will recognise that.”

For the full breakdown of the numbers – see the exclusive on 10 News First at 5pm.