Australia will head into the next federal election with the government and the opposition being helmed by two unpopular leaders, setting the scene for personality politics and a campaign filled with attack ads towards their personal brands.

Anthony Albanese has seen his popularity crumble since his party was elected to government in May 2022, while Peter Dutton continues to be a divisive figure with voters.

Both have scored negative approval ratings with voters in recent polling, while a record number of voters are ‘double haters’ who have a negative view of both leaders.

Mark Kenny, professor at the ANU Australian Studies Institute, said that heading into the next federal election, both Labor and the Coalition will see the other’s leader as a point of weakness.

“There is no doubt that Dutton, and the conservatives supporting him, will try to portray Albanese as a weak Prime Minister,” he said.

“Dutton is a divisive figure and has been described in some focus groups in fairly uncomplimentary terms for his appearance and his hard-line policies and rhetoric.”

During the Dunkley by-election, which was considered a test of both the opposition and the Albanese government, advertising focused on attacking the leadership of both parties.

Focus on Dutton and Albanese’s unpopularity was prevalent during the Dunkley by-election. Photo: AAP

Kenny said this is likely to get worse heading into a national election.

“We’re going to see more and more third-party campaigning that was very effective during the Voice referendum,” he said.

“With Get Up and Advance, these organisations are somewhat unhindered by the need to be respectable in the way political parties need to be.”

Unpopularity contest

The two major parties have seen a steady decrease in support recently, with the Albanese government winning the 2022 election on a historically low first-preference vote.

Dr Zareh Ghazarian, a political scientist from Monash University, said that “the unpopularity of the leaders goes beyond the personalities who are there at the moment”.

“What we have seen in Australian politics, especially at the last election, was a swing away from the major parties,” he said.

“Voters are now very comfortable, and potentially even looking forward to, voting for non-major party candidates.”

He said the past decade of Australian politics has been marked by significant internal party debates and turmoil.

“At one point we had what some called a revolving door of prime ministers and that does, I would suspect, erode people’s perceptions and confidence about the major parties,” Ghazarian said.

“How parties have gone about addressing climate change, how they’ve gone about trying to address service delivery and, for the last few years, how to manage the economy post-Covid with increasing cost of living has led to people looking for alternatives.”

Economic reality

The cost of living has dominated headlines and conversations as inflation has created economic challenges for voters and businesses.

Kenny said for Albanese and his government, a large part of his unpopularity stems from the “tricky economy” that he inherited.

“Albanese and Dutton are two of the longest-serving MPs in the Parliament. They’ve seen the political cycle from both sides of government and opposition,” he said.

“Dutton is very adept at exploiting the background conditions that make it hard to be in government as that is the economy.”

Although many commentators are predicting a minority government following the next election, Ghazarian said that political institutions and leaders are capable of winning back voters.

“Major parties have consistently come across all sorts of challenges over the decade and their size and scope has meant they can be pragmatic,” he said.

“They can embrace new policy ideas without giving a sense that they’re abandoning their core values.”