Australia’s avocado farmers are set for another record year, with a boom in growing for the popular fruit setting the stage for low prices at the supermarket and a boom in export markets.

Forecasts published on Tuesday by Rabobank threaten to upend the infamous meme that millennials can’t afford housing because they’re fans of smashed avo on toast, with production set to skyrocket by 139,000 metric tonnes in 2023-24 – up 20 per cent on the prior year.

Rabobank research analyst Pia Piggott said 1500 hectares of avocados are maturing this year, a trend that’s expected to continue well into the latter half of the decade.

“In the next five years we’ve got over 4000 additional hectares of orchids [reaching maturity],” Piggott said.

Avocados have been one of the few fresh fruits that have been spared from soaring grocery bills over the past few years, with varieties currently retailing at major supermarkets for under $2.

Prices have fallen to less than $1 at various points, and could be headed back in that direction again, though Rabobank is expecting some volatility heading into the summer months in 2024.

That’s because Western Australia will enter an off-year for production, reducing supply slightly.

“Overall, on average, the price is going to be lower and we’re going to see some further declines [in avocado prices] longer term,” Piggott said.

Australians have jumped eagerly at the chance to save money on avocados, capping off a decade in which local demand has risen at a compounded annual rate of 10 per cent.

More recently, however, there has been a glut in supply domestically, with production rising far faster than local demand can keep up.

“There’s not enough people in Australia to eat all the avocados, and we have some of the highest per capita rates of consumption in the world,” Piggott said.

All those excess avos need to go somewhere, and for many farmers the answer has been a booming export market for the fruits, with emerging destinations such as India and Hong Kong.

About 13 per cent of avocados farmed in Australia are being exported each year, but the industry is growing rapidly, expanding by a staggering 55 per cent in the past year alone.

The US has been a key driver, with import demand across the world’s wealthiest mass consumer market soaring to an all-time high of 1.26 million metric tonnes over 2023.

One issue though, as Piggott explained, is that Australia has reached saturation point in many of its established avocado markets, meaning the prospect of further growth has started to diminish.

Prices have also started falling on global markets as Australia has sent more product overseas.

In response, the industry is trying to gain regulatory access to export the fruit into new markets, with Japan and China being key targets.

Japan, one of the world’s largest consumer markets, has allowed West Australian farmers to export avocados there, but that only covers the nation for half of the year, Piggott explained.