Most of Australia can expect a wetter-than-usual spring, the Bureau of Meteorology says as it predicts the conditions for the new season.
Spring rainfall is set to be above the median for the eastern two-thirds of Australia and south-east Western Australia from September to November.
Only in the western part of WA will it be drier than usual.
A negative Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to last through spring, bringing with it that increased rainfall over southern and eastern Australia.
For Australia as a whole, the mean temperature for winter was 1.18°C above average —the 4th warmest winter on record.
Overall, winter rainfall was 4% below average but the wettest since 2016.
— Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) September 1, 2021
The bureau says spring days will be warmer for the northern tropics and far south-east of the country, but much of southern and eastern Australia will have cooler daytime temperatures.
But the mercury won’t drop so much overnight. Spring nights will be warmer than usual for most of Australia.
Only in southern WA are minimum temperatures set to be lower than normal.
Modelling suggests Australia is likely to avoid a return of La Nina, which caused devastating flooding last summer.
Most of the country is also set to avoid a significant spring bushfire season.
The negative Indian Ocean Dipole #IOD is likely to persist through spring increasing the chance of above average rainfall for southern & eastern Australia; the cooling of the Tropical Pacific SST also supports this. Learn more in the Climate Driver Update: https://t.co/cOWLftgONn pic.twitter.com/Q8Lr0CvfsT
— Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) August 31, 2021
The areas of northern Victoria and southern New South Wales that were most affected by the 2019-2020 bushfire season are still growing back, meaning there’s not sufficient fuel to give rise to high bushfire risk.
But in northern NSW, where wetter conditions have led to increased grass growth, there’s above normal fire potential, according to fire services’ predictions.
Climate change is likely influencing the forecasts for rainfall and temperature, the bureau says.
The country’s climate warmed about 1.44 degrees between 1910 and 2019.