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State of Origin: The burning questions answered

NEW SOUTH WALES

Why the Blues can end the drought …

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A shot of mongrel: Josh Reynolds. Photo: Getty

Form on the board: Although viewed by some as a monumental gamble, Josh Reynolds and Trent Hodkinson are unquestionably the form halves pairing in the NRL, while the vast majority of the NSW squad is in nothing short of superlative touch. Man for man, the Blues’ individual form has been far better than their Maroons counterparts.

Backs to the wall: Queensland has always thrived on the underdog tag and prided itself on triumphing over adversity. Injuries, suspensions, the Ray Hadley-Matt Parish feud and Mitchell Pearce’s sacking have all conspired to unsettle the Blues, but the setbacks could also harden their resolve as they approach the series opener at their longest odds in Origin history.

The Daley factor: Unquestionably among NSW’s top three greatest-ever Origin players, Laurie Daley’s ability to inspire his hungry young squad is a trump card. Daley, who was crushed by last year’s tight series loss, appears far more at ease and confident in the coaching role this year, projecting laser-like focus for the job at hand.

Hayne, Farah and Gallen: In the shape of superstar triumvirate Jarryd Hayne, Robbie Farah and Paul Gallen, the Blues possess three elite, experienced game-breakers with the drive, leadership and brilliance to guide their unfancied squad to glory. The trio of club captains have consistently delivered on the Origin stage.

Mongrel: The inclusion of the likes of Josh Reynolds and Beau Scott – alongside seasoned enforcers Gallen and Anthony Watmough – ensures the Blues will lose little in the toughness and aggression departments in comparison to the Maroons.

Quality to come back: Regardless of the result in game one, the Blues will head back to Sydney for the return clash with the currently suspended Greg Bird – an unwavering Origin performer across the last seven seasons – available for selection, while Test forward Boyd Cordner could also be ready to return from injury.

 … and why they can’t

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Rookie halfback Trent Hodkinson. Photo: Getty

Instability: NSW made giant, and underrated, strides towards closing the gap in 2013, but just 10 members of the Blues squad that were edged out in last year’s decider will line up in the 2014 series opener. Reynolds and Hodkinson will become the Blues’ 16th halves pairing since Queensland’s reign began in 2006.

Outclassed: Myriad theories have been expressed as to why Queensland has maintained such a lengthy dominance over NSW. But the overriding answer is that the Maroons currently boast five players – Slater, Inglis, Thurston, Smith and Cronk – who arguably rank among the top 50 players to ever play the game, while four of them are potential Immortals.

Inexperienced:  Six current members of the Queensland side are in the top 20 for appearances for the Maroons with at least 21 games; Jarryd Hayne (equal-13th with 17 games) and Paul Gallen (19th with 16 games) are the only players in the top 20 for appearances for NSW.

Two games behind enemy lines: The Blues have won just two series in the last 17 years – 2003 and ’05 – when two games have been staged in Brisbane, while their last victory at Suncorp Stadium came in the 2009 game three dead-rubber. NSW’s last win in a ‘live’ game north of the border was the 2005 decider.

Lack of forward pack variety: NSW boasts plenty of size and tackle-busting ability in the engine-room, but the Blues are short on creativity. After Greg Bird was ruled out, Daley and co resisted the temptation to replace him with uncapped Wade Graham, a rugged backrower and a genuine ball-player who would have provided the Blues with Bird-like impact.

QUEENSLAND

Why the Maroons can make it nine in a row …

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Is Billy Slater a bit long in the tooth? Photo: Getty

Age shall not weary them: Too much is being made of Slater, Smith, Cronk and Thurston (among others) being on the wrong side of 30. Wally Lewis, Mal Meninga, Allan Langer and Darren Lockyer all played – and dominated – at Origin level well into their 30s.

In-form superstars: The aforementioned quartet started 2014 slowly at club level, but all have neared peak form in recent weeks in the NRL while also starring in Australia’s Test win over New Zealand. Greg Inglis, Origin’s all-time leading try-scorer, has been in devastating touch from the outset.

Two games at home: Queensland has won five straight and seven of the last nine at Suncorp Stadium. Hosting two games for just the third time since their streak began in 2006 (and for the first time since 2011), the Maroons will relish the advantage.

Stability: Producing just two ‘one-game wonders’ since 2006 to the Blues’ 15, the Maroons have built their success around stability – much like their great sides of the 1980s. Queensland will field 16 players that won last year’s decider, with the only change being Aidan Guerra debuting for injured stalwart Sam Thaiday.

Motivation: Complacency should not be an issue, with Paul Gallen’s ‘two-heads’ throwaway line last week ensuring the Maroons’ hatred for anything sky blue and passion for their own jumper will not have waned one bit. Wally Lewis launched a withering attack on Gallen and the Blues over their disrespect for Queensland – and when ‘The King’ speaks, his disciples take action.

… and why they can’t

 

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Josh Papalii. Photo: Getty

Danger signs in 2012-13: While the ledger shows the Maroons have extended their unprecedented dominance to eight series, they squeaked home in the last two deciders by a combined total of three points. Queensland has also got off to scratchy starts in the last three campaigns and struggled in Sydney.

Loyalty to the out-of-form: Stoic loyalty or blind faith? Mal Meninga chose to retain Josh Papalii, Ben Te’o and Chris McQueen despite the trio’s subpar club efforts and the presence of a clutch of in-form alternatives. Darius Boyd’s form for the Knights has been appalling, but he always delivers at rep level.

Lack of specialist props: Starting props Matt Scott and Nate Myles, plus lock Corey Parker, are the only forwards with recognised experience up front. The bench, like 2013, is comprised of backrowers – but there is no Thaiday to revert to a role in tight. The Maroons may regret overlooking front-rowers Jacob Lillyman, Brenton Lawrence and Josh McGuire.

Backline depth: Queensland may have the luxury of playing arguably the game’s best halfback off the bench and the NRL’s No.1 fullback at centre, but an injury crisis in the three-quarters would leave the Maroons vulnerable. Will Chambers is the only attractive centre option, while Dale Copley and Daniel Vidot are the next best wingers available.

All good things … : It may seem like grasping at the flimsiest bunch of straws by NSW supporters, but the law of averages and the perennial closeness of Origin matches and series – seven of Queensland last eight series wins have been a 2-1 result, while five required a decider – suggest the Blues are destined to break the Maroons’ stranglehold on the shield.

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