Seven races on the card at Warwick Farm Wednesday and some big fields assembled on a rain affected track. It has been very hard to bet with confidence in NSW of late with the changing nature of the tracks and the rain around. Wednesday is no exception. Rail is in the true position and hopefully the track dries out a little and plays fairly. Expecting scratchings on race day to have an effect which makes it tough to preview.
With all that in mind, we are confident our blackbooker in Race 5 can run a good race and the preview can be found below.
Saturday sees the first day of The Championships at Royal Randwick and the team at The Trial Files will be previewing many of the major races. In all likelihood we will get another rain affected track on Saturday. Sydney in the Autumn just seems to be plagued with these conditions. Usually when that happens and the Rail is true, it means you want to be getting carted up into the race, pulling to the middle of the track and swooping.
The racing industry will also descend on Sydney this week for the Inglis Easter sale taking place from Tuesday through to Thursday.
The Inglis Easter Sale is the oldest yearling sales in Australia with its history dating back to 1917. Last year, the two highest priced yearlings ever sold in Australia went through the ring with the Fastnet Rock x River Dove colt reaching a price of $4 million and the ill-fated half-brother to Black Caviar (Redoute’s Choice x Helsinge) hitting the magical $5 million mark.
The lot that will create a great deal of interest this year is Lot 263, Street Cry x Typhoon Tracy. This is the superstar mare’s only foal as sadly the six time Group 1 winner and 2010 horse of the year died shortly after giving birth to the foal. This colt is scheduled to go through the ring Wednesday afternoon and should see some very competitive bidding.
Other lots that will create interest include Fastnet Rock x Glowlamp (Lot 35), All American x Johan’s Toy (Lot 57), All American x Miss Kournikova (Lot 112), High Chaparral x Shania Dane (Lot 204) and Fastnet Rock x Eskimo Queen (Lot 433).
Below is a brief preview for Race 5 Wednesday along with some key statistics and a guide to the history of four feature races to kick of The Championships on Saturday which is sure to help you find a winner.
Wednesday Warwick Farm – Race 5 Pro-Ride Handicap (1600m)
Our blackbooker engaged in this event is the Waller trained international 4 BEYOND THANKFUL. The 4YO caught the eye making good ground in his first trial in Australia back in February. He stepped out in a strong race at his local debut and ran home well from the tail to grab third behind Leebaz and Canny Ballad. While beaten a fair way, it was a race dominated by those up on speed and the two that beat him have since run very well in stronger races. That form should hold up and we all know Waller runners often improve from what they do fresh. If that is to be the case here, expecting this bloke to run a very competitive race again.
3 MADAM NASH and 6 TENACITUS can set a reasonable tempo and allow every runner to get their chance. Hugh Bowman stays aboard 4 BEYOND THANKFUL and should be able to get him into a good position from barrier 6. He handles all conditions and has won on a heavy track previously. Expecting him to run well.
Chris Waller may be able to run the quinella here with 3 MADAM NASH looming as the one to beat on the back of a very good trial. The 6YO mare has a very good career record and has run the quinella in all four heavy track appearances. She can dictate from out in front and give a solid kick. She looms as the one to beat despite being first-up on a wet track with 60kg.
Not an overly appealing race but expecting the two mentioned above to run very good races. Waller looks to hold the key.
Saturday Feature Race Guide and Pointers
Group 1 $3,000,000 Doncaster Mile – 1600M
2013 winner (Sacred Falls – T Berry/C Waller)
Race Conditions: 3yo+ Open HandicapDon’t worry about where you draw. It’s a complete fallacy that wide draws hurt. Seven of the past 10 have been in double figures
Before the trifecta last year, 2008 was the previous 3yo victory (Triple Honour)
Last filly to win was Sunline in 1999
More Joyous’57.5kg was the highest weight to win since Sunline’s second triumph in 2002 when the champ carried 58kg
However when you look at the last decade, the average winning weight is only approximately 53kg
Group 1 $2,500,000 TJ Smith Stakes – 1200M
2013 winner (Black Caviar – L Nolen/P Moody)
Race Conditions: Standard Weight For Age
Has been an upset race in the past. Rain Affair & Foxwedge were the only horses in a field of six under double figures but got run over in 2012, Melito was fourth fav in a seven horse line-up in 2010, Red Oog was rank outsider in 2006, Shamekha $26 shot against Fastnet Rock & Alinghi all just since it was a G1
Has been a good race for the girls. Since inception in 1997, they’ve won it 7 times
Group 1 $2,000,000 ATC Australian Derby – 2400M
2013 winner (It’s A Dundeel – J McDonald/M Baker)
Race Conditions: 3yo Set Weights
Since the Year 2000, only Eremein & It’s A Dundeel did the Rosehill Guineas/AJC Derby double
Most runners come through the Rosehill Guineas (Starcraft, Nom De Jeu & Ethiopia are recent exceptions)
Short run to the first turn so barriers can be important
Shamrocker’s win in 2011 was the first by a filly since Research in 1989
Favourites have not a good record in the race – before It’s A Dundeel, Headturner was the last one in 2006
Group 1 $1,000,000 Sires Produce Stakes – 1400M
2013 winner (Guelph – K McEvoy/P Snowden)
Race Conditions: 2yo Set Weights
Only Pierro, Sebring and Dance Hero have won the Sires after the Golden Slipper since 1996
Gai Waterhouse has dominated this race (three colts, two geldings & two fillies)
Fillies ran the trifecta in 2013 with Guelph charging late to score
Wide barriers have not been any worry at all
Warwick Farm Race 5
– 3 BEYOND THANKFUL (each way)
– 4 MADAM NASH
Sandown Race 3 – 5 LA VEUVE (each way)
Early Feature Saturday Selections
TJ Smith – LANKAN RUPEE
ATC Derby – CADILLAC MOUNTAIN (If not too wet), CRITERION, GALLATIN