A reasonable day for followers on Saturday with selections MOLTO ALLEGRO and KENCELLA winning well at Ascot and Rosehill respectively. Unfortunately the other one we were keen on, DIAMETRIC ran his race in the preliminary, getting far too worked up. It will pay to forgive his run and continue to follow him going forward.
Today we take a brief look at a 2yo race from Kensington, along with an in depth preview of a 3yo race from Mornington with a couple of very talented horses involved.
Two 2YO maidens start the day at Kensington and amazingly Paul Cave, who has only had 20 starters this racing season (Since August 01 2013), has a runner in both. Even more interestingly is the fact that they both trialled very well on March 11 and entered our blackbook. Unfortunately, the rain has hit Sydney in a big way and we are expected to be faced with a wet track here. With 2YOs this makes it very difficult to back anything with confidence.
Kensington Race 1 – 2yo Colts & Geldings SW Maiden (1150m)
Race 1 sees the 2YO boys step out over 1150m and it looks an intriguing race with eight of the field of 13 making their debut. All the big stables have runners including Waller, Waterhouse, Moody, Bart and James Cummings, Snowden and Ryan, but perhaps it is the lesser known Paul Cave that could upstage them all with his gelding 2 COLMCILLE. 2 COLMCILLE trialled very smartly back on March 11 at Warwick Farm and has drawn well in barrier 2. Expecting him to come up reasonable odds as all the big stables are represented and he could measure up. Obvious query on rain affected tracks.
Waller has 3 COUNTRY WARRIOR who has been very good in two career runs, finishing second on both occasions. Notably, both of these runs have been on affected surfaces and he seems to get through it ok. The form from his last run has been ok with Scratch Me Lucky since running well in the Group 2 Todman. Race experience, fitness, blinkers on, and an ability to handle conditions are all positives and expecting him to be right in the finish again here.
1 CHARLIE ROYALE won a trial on a slow track back in February and you have to respect any 2YO Gerald Ryan puts a saddle on currently, especially when first-up.
The Gai Waterhouse trained 5 CYCLONE is the most experienced horse in this event and lines up for his second preparation. He was good in three starts last time in and rounded out his prep with a 4th in the Gold Coast Magic Millions. That should be enough to see him be competitive in this event. Would have liked to have seen a little more in his recent trial but in his favour is the fact that he did appear to handle the wet when winning a trial at Randwick back in November. Of the others, a few look to have ability but big queries on the majority of the field on a wet track.
If willing or keen to play in this event, having something small each way on 2 COLMCILLE at a price might not be a bad idea. 3 COUNTRY WARRIOR looks the obvious.
Mornington Race 7 – 3yo Handicap (1200m)
Fascinating race but unfortunate that two of our better performed blackbookers of late have to meet in the same race!
A capacity field of 14 is set to do battle here over the 1200m at Mornington with the rail out 3m (last meeting was in the true position).
Speed looks likely 4 GOLFING and 11 ARDELLE from inside draws but we suspect that 10 SRIKANDI can burn the lot of them off from barrier 10 and take up the running. 7 WILDERBEAST is drawn very awkwardly in barrier 16 but does have some speed so it will be interesting to see what tactics they employ. 14 MADAM GANGSTER is drawn down in one and Michelle Payne would be well served giving this filly a dig in the ribs to ensure she doesn’t get buried away on the inside. Speed should be reasonable with 10 SRIKANDI running them along.
10 SRIKANDI resumed at Moonee Valley on 28th February over the 1000m and raced on pace in what was a very hot tempo that evening.
Our trial comment leading into that race noted:
“SRIKANDI showed good speed to hold the rail into the home lane. She drew away from them under a stranglehold and simply could not have trialled better. 9.9/10”
She got the better of the on pacers but was grabbed in the shadows of the post by the fast finishing PILLY’S WISH who had the cold drop on her. This daughter of Dubawi will be much improved for the outing and is well suited around the tight turning Mornington circuit where she can use her tactical speed to great advantage.
14 MADAM GANGSTER is a very smart filly who looks to have come back in even better shape than her last campaign.
The comment from her recent Cranbourne trial suggests she is in for a huge campaign:
“Very very very nice trial from MADAM GANGSTER. She stalked the speed and travelled ever so well into the home lane. The run presented about 250m from home and she burst through under light urgings from Michelle. She was clearing out from the field late and ran good time in the process. Keen to follow. “
She was good in two short course maidens before stepping up to the 1400m and leading throughout in a dominant display at Ballarat, eventually going on to win by 4L. Her last run before a spell was in the strong Eureka Stockade race at Ballarat when not disgraced behind TRUST IN A GUST. This Robert Kingston trained filly looks primed to run a big race first up and a reasonable strong tempo up front is going to be to her liking. Provided she can hold a spot one or two pairs back on the rail then she can definitely power of the top of them late.
9 PEARLY WHITES looms as the main danger to our two blackbookers. This Sharkbite filly was super on resumption at MV when she got back beyond midfield before rallying late and finishing a close up fourth behind DOUBLE BARREL DAISY. She is ideally suited up in trip to the 1200m here and a likely strong tempo only enhances her chances. Expect her to get back beyond midfield but look for her to be closing hard over the concluding stages.
13 JUST MOUSE is a Tasmanian visitor who ran a huge race behind the highly talented SOOSA RAMA last start. She went around at 80/1 but defied her cricket score odds to run a nice fourth, just 2.5L from the winner in what was a very strong race. She looks to get a nice run her just forward of midfield and a repeat of her last effort would see her a chance for the multiples.
A strong race with plenty of chances but from a betting perspective we lean to backing 10 SRIKANDI with a saver on 14 MADAM GANGSTER. Include those mentioned in the preview in wider multiples.
Kensington Race 1 –
3 COUNTRY WARRIOR
2 COLMCILLE (each-way bet)
Mornington Race 7 –
WIN BET – 10 SRIKANDI
SAVER – 14 MADAM GANGSTER
TRIFECTA – 9,10,14 / 9,10,14 / 5,9,10,13,14
Bunbury Race 1 –
POETS PRINCE (small each way bet)