Best Saturday bets from Rosehill, Ascot

Trial Files
Mar 21, 2014, updated Mar 21, 2014

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Saturday is the first day of the Golden Slipper festival of racing and the two G1s are spectacular. The Ranvet Stakes sees the clash of the Melbourne and Australian Cup champ FIORENTE against five time G1 winner IT’S A DUNDEEL.

The accompanying feature is the Coolmore Classic which historically was the first G1 for Fillies & Mares and is the only one around the country run under handicap conditions. Often a race with plenty of value for punters, there is nothing different in 2014.

On top of these we have the two best lead ups to the Golden Slipper being the Todman Stakes and the Reisling Stakes plus other important events which flow into The Championships in three weeks.

The rail is true for the first day of the Rosehill section of the carnival. Traditionally a first day would suit the inside but if there is some give in the ground, most Coolmore Classic days run under those circumstances have suited swoopers. Winners like Tuesday Joy and Ofcourseican were up the middle on damper surfaces. Even Appearance last year on a good track was wide when she won.

Rosehill Race 1 – Untameable Stakes (1100m)

Small field of eight but a good race to kick off a great program at Rosehill. Looks to be plenty of speed engaged with 3 THAT’S A GOOD IDEA, 4 VA PENSIERO, 5 KENCELLA and 6 SENTA DE NOCHE all flying machines. These four only know one way and they could set the race up for those able to make ground late perhaps. Our speed map for this event can be found here.

Have been a massive fan of the Moody trained 2 FLAMBERGE this prep and his two runs in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate and then the Newmarket Handicap have been superb. He drops in grade here and could possibly get the suck run in behind the hot speed and be produced late by Chad Schofield. With breaks at the right time, no shock to see him be strong to the line.

Chad’s father Glyn Schofield rides one of the dangers in 3 THAT’S A GOOD IDEA who is expected to be out in front and give a good sight. 3 THAT’S A GOOD IDEA has been in consistent form and can run well again. Definitely promoting him if the track is a Dead 4 or better but at this stage, thinking the on pace pressure may take it’s toll late and leaning to others.

Our blackbooker here is 5 KENCELLA who showed he is in very good order with a nice trial on March 11. Unfortunately he is entered in a race with a lot of speed and won’t be able to dictate from the front. No better jockey to have on board of late in James McDonald and he can assess the situation up front and put the 4YO in a good spot. The career record of 5 KENCELLA is very good and expecting him to run well with any luck in running.

4 VA PENSIERO is another one that likes to go quickly but perhaps could take a sit from barrier two as he has somewhat done to an extent in two trials leading in. Scratched from the Group 1 Newmarket at Flemington, he is expected to run well here. Winner of two from three first up and the trials suggest he is going ok.

The Kris Lees trained 6 SENTA DE NOCHE is very speedy. The 6YO has only had four career starts, working his way through the grades and saluting on every occasion. He hasn’t raced for almost 12 months to the day which suggests he has had his issues but he seems to be going well with two trial wins on wet tracks in February. He is a relatively unknown quantity here but the market is sure to be a good guide. At his best, he must be respected. Just feel he may be vulnerable late first-up over the 1100m, especially with the expected pressure on up front.

1 TITLE has not won for 14 starts but did win this race two years ago. Him and 7 DIAMOND OASIS will both be running on hard.

A good but tricky little race. 2 FLAMBERGE has been in super form and could get all the favours from barrier 1. The trial of 5 KENCELLA was too good not to give him a strong chance also. Leaning to those two in what is a trappy race that could be high pressure.

For full fields and form visit http://www.risa.com.au

Rosehill Race 5 – Sky High Stakes Group 3 (1900m)

Often these Group 3-Listed class middle distance races in NSW can lack a bit of interest but the Waller import 5 DIAMETRIC definitely adds that little bit of intrigue. Jim Cassidy takes the ride on the top weight here in 1 JULIENAS and that may be a good sign the 7YO is going to push forward. 10 ENTIRELY PLATINUM is down in the weights and is usually thereabouts in the run. Tipping he will be up there again. As will 9 DESERT JEUNEY up to 1900m.

5 DIAMETRIC led a small field in a Group 1 three starts back over 2000m but has shown a willingness to get back and run on in two recent trials. First-up from barrier 9, expecting them to settle just beyond midfield wherever Avdulla can slot in. In saying that, if he gets caught wide, he probably does have the speed to roll forward. His two trials in Australia have both been superb, running on, catching the eye and making it into our blackbook on both occasions. Waller seems to have trained this 5YO gelding right up for this and expecting him to be right in the finish. $11 on offer early for those who read our trial reviews was superb value. Always a little worry with Waller runners fresh but he looms as a major player.

Outside of him, leaning to the two horses coming out of Group 1’s last start. 4 PRINCE CHERI was good in the Chiping Norton fresh, only 3.4 lengths off the likes of Boban and It’s A Dundeel. He goes very well second-up and has to be considered one of the main hopes.

6 LET’S MAKE A DEAL is an up and coming stayer who makes his way over from Victoria after running a good seventh in the Australian Cup. That run was full of merit and he should have a solid fitness base now. Not sure the drop back to 1900m is ideal but despite that, he can run a race.

2 BRIGANTIN and 7 MIDSUMMER SUN have reasonable summer form but this is harder. No surprise to see 7 MIDSUMMER SUN improve dramatically on his last run in the Listed Canberra Cup but not sure barrier 1 suits

1 JULIENAS comes out of the Canberra Cup also and he can give cheek if they decide to push forward today.

All in all, a reasonable race and one that we are confident our blackbooker 5 DIAMETRIC can run well in. Happy to back him each way with more on to place. Could save on 4 PRINCE CHERI and play multiples around these two.