A good day on Wednesday with one of our two selections, Brook Road saluting in fine style at Kensington. Close to $10 was available for Brook Road early in betting and he won well, resulting in a handsome profit for the day. Today we are back at Randwick for the second Saturday in a row. Last week the rail was in the 6m position but moves to the true position today. We are wary that the fence might be off and we face uncertainty around the weather as 20-40mm of rain is forecast for Friday.
We also have a look at two races from Ascot including the listed sprint named after the great West Australian mare, Miss Andretti.
RANDWICK: Race 1 – 2yo SWP (1000m)
A small field of seven two-year-olds but a mouth-watering affair. We are set to witness the debut of one of the most spruiked horses in Australia in 3 RUBICK along with several other high-priced, well-bred and talented individuals. Only the one experienced horse engaged and that is one of our blackbookers in 5 PINK PERFECTION. Speed is obviously questionable but 3 RUBICK showed nice speed at the trials and can go forward from barrier six. 5 PINK PERFECTION has led in her two starts this time in and won’t be too far away from 2.
The trial comment of 3 RUBICK pretty much says it all.
“RUBICK – The spruik on this horse has been enormous since this trial and Gerald Ryan has been quoted as saying this is his best horse since Snitzel. Now that is a big call and one we are definitely taking with a grain of salt. No doubt this 2yo has plenty of ability but to say he is better than the likes of Melito and Snitzerland is a large statement at this stage. Ryan may have meant ‘best colt’ or he may have been misquoted by some media outlets. Given he is a colt and will likely go to stud in a couple of years, this quote by Ryan will undoubtedly be used in promotion. This son of Encosta De Lago is a superbly bred individual, out of the lightly raced Sliding Cube, from the family of Redoute’s Choice. Talk and spruik aside, this trial was nothing short of outstanding and has seen him firm into favourite for the Blue Diamond. It is important to note that Gerald Ryan horses are notable good triallers. RUBICK jumped very well and simply flew out in front. Railled nicely and left them for dead at the top of the straight. Dashed clear and won with plenty in hand. Time was very quick. No doubt he will be very short on debut but we will watch with interest.”
A massive spruik on this well bred colt and no surprise to see him go around at short odds. The weather and forecast rain may have an impact on his chances but he does look to have plenty of ability.
5 PINK PERFECTION started a short price favourite last start and won in good style at Warwick Farm. He cops a penalty for that win and only has half a kg off her male counterparts here. She does have race experience and clear ability. She notably performed very well at the trials on a wet track and is bred to get through the wet if that happens to be the case. She has to be respected.
The Waterhouse trained 4 VALENTIA is another that has won a trial on an affected surface so keep that in mind. He was a $1.35 million purchase and clearly has ability.
We loved the win of 6 CREATE at her latest trial and she duly entered our blackbook. She showed great acceleration and coasted clear to win by six lengths. Unknown in the wet but she looks to have plenty of ability and expecting a forward showing.
7 TWIRL is a superbly bred individual by Lonhro out of Cirque Du Soleil who happens to be the full sister to Fastnet Rock. She is a half sister to the smart Emotional Circus and cost $675,000 when going through the ring. With three reasonable trials under her belt leading in to her debut today, no surprise to see her run well.
Hard to recommend a bet here, especially with the query on the weather and track. Happy to watch with a great deal of interest and an eye to the future. Sure to be a hot form race.
ASCOT: Race 1 – 2yo SWP (1100m)
A small field of two year olds goes around here and given only three of the nine have raced before we are going to be relying on a lot of trial form.
Of the raced brigade we think 1 LIGHTNING RUN is the leading contender. He won at his second lifetime start on New Year’s Day before he drew a terrible barrier and had to go back. He finished off ok that day and should be able to take up a midfield position today.
The key chances from the debutants are 3 CROWN CHOICE, 5 TOPPA DAWOZZA, 8 BIG CAROLINE and 9 FEMMETTE.
The Neville Parnham trained 3 CROWN CHOICE had two trials back in October 2013, before being given a short spell without debuting. In the latter of those trials he beat subsequent winner VITAL ART. He returned on Monday with a nice jump out over the 400m and looks set for a big performance here.
5 TOPPA DAWOZZA is an interesting runner. Ran a good trial in early January but then was completely hopeless in his latest trial on Monday. It seems they played with some of his gear at his most recent run so we are basing his chances around his first trial. He drifted back in that trial and finished off well, however he may try and sit closer today from an inside barrier. Paul Harvey on is a key booking.
The Bunbury trained 8 BIG CAROLINE showed good improvement from her first trial at Lark Hill to her second trial at Bunbury last Friday. The Bunbury trials are traditionally not as strong as the metro trials but she was reasonably impressive and can go on with it here.
Our trial blackbooker 9 FEMMETTE has been nominated and scratched a few times since trialling due to bad barriers, but has drawn smack bang in the middle of the field today and should take up a prominent position in the first four in running. Her trial was good, however our only slight knock on her is that it has been over four weeks since that trial. This could work to her advantage and have her on the fresh side, or her condition might give out over the last 50 metres.
We are happy to be on 9 FEMMETTE each way as the Daly team looked to have placed her very well. Main dangers are 3 CROWN CHOICE and 8 BIG CAROLINE.
ASCOT: Race 6 – 3yo+ Listed Handicap (1200m)
A competitive field has been assembled for a black type sprint named after the great West Australian sprinter Miss Andretti. While there are no horses of her quality in the field, it will be an interesting race regardless.
The Simon Miller stable has three of the ten horses in the field and his charge looks to be led by talented filly 7 HUSSY BY CHOICE. Even though she has a wide barrier, this shouldn’t pose too much of a problem as the only other noted front runner in the race is 10 THE ENTOURAGE. 7 HUSSY BY CHOICE had a brilliant campaign last time and performs very well fresh, she looks very hard to topple in this.
After two solid placings in listed company at the start of this preparation, 3 DUETON finally broke through for a win in the inaugural running of the Scenic Blast Stakes. He should settle closer from barrier one, most likely behind the leader and will try to run down the filly late. He is never out of consideration in this class of field.
1 WATERMANS BAY produced a career best performance earlier this summer to run third in the WFA Winterbottom Sprint, beaten only 1.5L by BUFFERING and MOMENT OF CHANGE. He has had a few runs between then and gone well without being amazing. The main issue seems to be his big weight compared to this on the minimum, but if he produces his best he can definitely go very close.
The consistent 9 SHINING KNIGHT has all the right form lines for a race like this and gets in well on the minimum weight. He ran a good fifth in the Winterbottom when not suited at the WFA conditions then ran second behind MAGNIFISIO in the Summer Scorcher. Similar to 1 WATERMANS BAY he will drift back into the second half of the field and will face a big task running down the filly, 7 HUSSY BY CHOICE who will have a break on them.
8 RECODE is always consistent and will be running home strongly at the end. We just don’t think there is enough pace in the race to give him a realistic winning chance today.
We are confident 7 HUSSY BY CHOICE can return a winner first up. The main dangers to her look to be the consistent 3 DUETON and 9 SHINING KNIGHT. If 1 WATERMANS BAY can reproduce his Winterbottom Stakes run, he will make his presence felt.
THE TRIAL FILES’ SELECTIONS
FOR ASCOT (SATURDAY)
ASCOT Race 1 – 9 FEMMETTE (each way)
ASCOT Race 6 – 7 HUSSY BY CHOICE (each way)