Rosehill has not raced since November 30, on another of those days when it was very hard to make up ground out wide.
The Rail is true today and the track generally plays reasonably fair in this position – possibly one or two off the fence is suited. That said, when you have firm track racing, it can often be the case that is hard to get back and run on.
ROSEHILL Race 5 – BM80 Handicap (1100m) – 3.50pm
Looks to be plenty of speed engaged here. 4 CALMING INFLUENCE could hold the key here. If they are desperate to lead as she has done in her last three, that will only add to the speed. Suspect they may take a sit today though from barrier 3.
If it’s not 4 CALMING INFLUENCE leading, 3 WORDS ARE WEAPONS, 2 PRETTYFAMOUS and 1 SHE’S A STALKER will be up there. In addition, several of the lightweights who hold inside gates are capable of holding a forward position.
The runner to note here is 9 NORTHERN GLORY. After a quiet period, even accounting for Melbourne Cup success, Gai Waterhouse’s team have started to find a bit of form. This Northern Meteor filly trialled very nicely at Randwick on November 21, taking it by four lengths.
She had good form last time in and has a handy career record with three wins from 7 starts. She generally likes to take a sit in behind the speed and that is a lovely situation here with the speed we discussed earlier. Barrier 4 looks ideal. A little weight allowance being a filly is just an added bonus and she should be ready to go with the Magic Millions a likely target in a few weeks. On the back of that impressive trial, she appears a big show in this. A race with a number of chances but happy to be on 9 NORTHERN GLORY each way.
ASCOT Race 6 – Listed Crawford Stakes (1000m)
Trial comments: DUETON – good trial from this guy who is a very good horse. Sat outside the leader who gave him the slip on the turn but he came up to him and headed him late, only for the leader to kick back on the line. Wasn’t asked to do anything and just went around for a look.
DUETON – another good trial in addition to his hit out two weeks ago. Sat last of the five and rounded them all up under his own power down the outside. Will win first up.
Summary: The speedsters step out here in the first of two short course feature sprints over the Christmas/New Year period. A similar field is likely to step out again on New Year’s day in the Summer Scorcher.
There is never a lack of speed on a 1000m black type race and today is no exception. 7 HIGHLY TOXIC and 12 THE ENTOURAGE will be speeding across from out wide to push forward with 8 MAGNIFISIO, 6 DUETON and 3 THE RISING pushing up behind them.
One we have been following through the trials is 6 DUETON. He has trialled twice leading into this race and both have been very good performances. From the inside barrier he should be able to drive up and sit behind the leader. If he can get off heels when they turn, he has a good turn of foot on him and he will fight all the way to the line. He has 4 wins and 4 seconds from 12 starts over the 1000m and he looks set to continue that strong record today.
3 THE RISING has a great record over the short course and goes well when given a freshen up. He is another who will drive up just behind the speed and could settle outside 6 DUETON in the second pairing. 3 THE RISING and 6 DUETON actually trialled in the same heat two weeks with the latter going straight past 3 THE RISING under less pressure.
The big class dropper is 5 DOMINATING. He drops back from the WFA Lee Steere Stakes when he was fourth behind CONSERVATORIUM. He drops considerably in weight and has the blinkers on today. He will have to be at the top of his game to come home over the top of some very good horses.
The mare 8 MAGNIFISIO jumps in grade here but she can make her presence felt. She won dominantly last week and has only missed a placing twice in her career from 14 starts.
We are very confident of 6 DUETON running a big race first up and happy to select him on top. 3 THE RISING is always hard to beat with 8 MAGNIFISIO and 5 DOMINATING the next best.
THE TRIAL FILES’ SELECTIONS
ROSEHILL Race 5 – 9 NORTHERN GLORY (each-way)
ASCOT Race 6 – 6 DUETON (win)