Spring racing may be winding down for another year, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t still plenty of winners out there for the punters to find!
To assist our readers, we’ve joined forces with the team at The Trial Files to provide previews for Wednesday and Saturday racing. The Trial Files team did an amazing job over the Spring Carnival, recommending bets on the winners of the Victoria Derby, the Melbourne Cup, the Oaks and the Emirates Stakes. They also managed to tip Shamus Award at big odds in the Cox Plate!
Of 40 races previewed between November 2 and November 9, the Trial Files‘ blackbook runners notched up 20 wins at a profit on turnover of 93.30%. Now that’s good punting!
This week, The Trial Files brings The New Daily readers previews of the big racing at Caulfield and Ascot.
Caulfield (VIC) preview
The Victorian Spring Carnival has one last breath with the parade rolling on to Caulfield (as Sandown undergoes re-surfacing) on Saturday.
Zipping Classic (Race 6)
The 2400m staying event gives horses that missed out on the Melbourne Cup and up and coming stayers one last gasped attempt to cash in on Spring riches. This year’s edition isn’t an appealing betting race but we have been following both 6 EPINGLE and 9 KAZANLUK and they look two horses on the up that can figure at each way odds.
Sandown Guineas (Race 7)
In recent years, this race has been dominated by the John Hawkes/Peter Snowden operation, which has won it six times since 1999. Once again Snowden prepares a likely type, and race favourite, in the front running 1 PAXIMADIA who is capable of giving a huge sight up on speed. The Trial Files has been following 8 INAFRENZY since a very good trial at Cranbourne and he saluted in fine style first up. He was luckless behind The Quarterback, who is a future star of the turf, and at around 25/1 he represents good value.
Suggested bets (all times AEDST)
• Race 5 (2.50pm): 8 EXIMIUS (each way)
• Race 7 (4.10pm): 1 PAXIMADIA (win)
Ascot (WA) preview
After the conclusion of the Melbourne spring carnival, feature racing heads west for the traditional Summer carnival at Ascot.
The action really steps up next Saturday with the running of the Group 1 Railway Stakes, the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes, the Group 2 WA Guineas and four other black type races.
This week in three-year-old fillies contest the Group 3 Champion Fillies stakes, while the winner of the Group 3 RJ Peters Stakes over 1500m is exempt from the ballot for the Railway next week and contains a number of runners trying to force their way into the field.
Champion Fillies Stakes (Race 6)
This is usually a race that attracts a full field of 16 but this year we have just 12 starters, of which only six can be considered strong winning chances.
Most of them met in the lead up two weeks ago and on that day 2 MISS ROSE DE LAGO won fairly strongly with 4 VIA LAURENTINA gradually taking ground off her late. 5 COOL TRADE will need to improve over three lengths to beat these two, but does have the blinkers applied for the first time today, which should see her sit on the pace again and work up outside of 2 MISS ROSE DE LAGO.
7 BALMONT GIRL is the other who comes out of this race with a winning chance. She has finished strongly with the quickest last 600m sectional time at both her runs this preparation and the 1600m looks like it will suit her perfectly.
Two horses that come from a different form line are 12 DECREED and 9 WESTERN GEM, both of whom are being thrown in the deep end here. 12 DECREED had two very nice trials before running third on debut two weeks ago. She was a bit unlucky that day after getting shuffled back, but when she saw daylight she really got going late. The Kersley stable place their horses very well and she wouldn’t be running in this if they didn’t think she was a strong chance.
9 WESTERN GEM is bred to stay, being a half-sister to Perth Cup winner Western Jewel.
This is a race in which we don’t want to take the short odds about the favourite. Happy to look for value and recommend a small each- way play on 12 DECREED with 2 MISS ROSE DE LAGO, 4 VIA LAURENTINA and 7 BALMONT GIRL next best.
RJ Peters Stakes (Race 7)
Despite being the last chance for some of these to earn a spot in next week’s $1 million Railway Stakes, traditionally the RJ Peters Stakes (Race 7) isn’t the best lead-up guide for the main race. The last horse to win the double was El Presidente in 2007 and before that, the great Northerly in 2000.
11 REBELSON and 6 ELITE BELLE currently sit 34th and 37th respectively in the ballot order for the Railway and look the two key runners here, both trying to force their way into the field.
6 ELITE BELLE fought out the finish a fortnight ago with 5 COMFYSOFA and there is no reason they won’t be doing it again today. 6 ELITE BELLE sat a lot more forward that day than her usual pattern, however she should be able to settle midfield today. 5 COMFYSOFA is an on-speed runner who should go forward from the wide barrier and with the blinkers on today will again prove hard to run down.
11 REBELSON has had two recent trials, the latter of which was very impressive. Given this isn’t a high speed race, he should be able to push forward and roll along in the lead which will give him the best chance of winning.
3 VERMEER is right on the border of gaining a Railway start (18th) and will also be looking to run a strong race. He doesn’t necessarily have to win to elevate himself into the field, but will be looking to run into the money. He has been a bit unlucky so far this preparation and should get into a beautiful position in the run.
13 WILD CHARGER is the knockout horse. Although not nominated for the Railway he is thriving under his new trainer and will be running on hard at the end.
6 ELITE BELLE is going really well this preparation and can return to the winners circle here. 5 COMFYSOFA, 11 REBELSON and 13 WILD CHARGER must be respected.
Suggested bets (all times AEDST)
• Race 7 (8pm): 6 ELITE BELLE (each way)
• Race 8 (8.35pm): 9 MR UTOPIA (win)
BEST BET FOR THE WEEKEND
Ascot Race 7
6 ELITE BELLE
The Trial Files says: “Returned with a dominant win first up over 1400m coming from the back. Last start over the same distance she sat closer and had to cart the field up to the tear away leaders. Today over 1500m she should settle midfield, balance up and finish strongly. Needs to win to get into the Railway Stakes and looks set to peak at her third run this preparation. Confident she can be in the finish at a nice each-way price.”
• The Trial Files is a unique and revolutionary trial service that gives punters a vital edge over the competition through the thorough analysis of Vic, NSW and WA barrier trials. Subscribe to receive full Trial Files membership access which includes previous and ongoing trial reviews, BlackBook Previews and other important trial information. Follow the Trial Files on Twitter @thetrialfiles