By the time a Test series is 60 per cent completed, some predictable patterns usually emerge.

Often, one team has established superiority with a clear lead or they are in the process of driving home the mental edge that comes when your opponent fully understands that they simply aren’t good enough.

In that case, they think that no amount of toss winning, an advantage in conditions or dumb luck will make a difference. Resistance is futile.

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If the teams are evenly matched (on paper) from the outset, then close matches might be won and lost by the team which prevails at the crucial moments.

The 2005 Ashes series was a classic example. That was a series where each match could have gone either way. All the matches were close, thrilling and tense – even the draws.

A decade later, the series is close again but the matches are anything but.

A couple of failures doesn’t mean Steve Smith should move from No.3. Photo: Getty

The margins are huge and the roundabouts are barely wide enough to counter the swings.

Australia, particularly captain Michael Clarke, looked shell-shocked following their Birmingham loss.

They were primed for a cruisy match after turning the momentum at Lord’s. The planets were back in alignment and England were expected to crumble.

But instead, Australia repeated their poor all-round cricket of the first Test and England won with little stress. The result surprised both teams.

The entire coaching staff are now on notice to turn around the batting, bowling and fielding – and fast.

David Warner and Chris Rogers are okay up front and there is no need to move Steve Smith from first drop just because he has missed out once in a blue moon.

Changing the order to protect Clarke is not on, either. He must stay at four and take the responsibility.

Adam Voges has played much county cricket in England, has a wise head and should be persevered with, which leaves Mitchell March at six and still filling the all-rounder duties.

The only way to lose inexperience is to get on the field and play and if Marsh is to be the long-term replacement for Shane Watson, then there is no point in dropping him after a couple of failures.

Plus, the all-rounder is now seen as a crucial piece of the attack. The modern game sees four specialist bowlers as under-strength.

As for the wicketkeeper, Peter Nevill has a career in front of him. Vale the champion, Brad Haddin.

So what about the seam and swing merchants?

Mitchell Johnson, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood were impeccable during the World Cup triumph, poor at Cardiff, outstanding at Lord’s and diabolical at Edgbaston.

That is difficult to fathom.

Peter Siddle hasn’t played enough cricket to be ready for a Test. Photo: Getty

Maybe the sports psychologist will be handier than the bowling coach.

The efforts of the bowlers (Nathan Lyon meritoriously excepted) last week certainly did my head in.

But the reserves, Peter Siddle and Pat Cummins, have had precious little quality bowling recently and it would be asking a lot for them to be in prime shape for five days of Test cricket.

So by now, you may have gathered that I wouldn’t be changing the team at all.

They won at Lord’s. They can win again.

Getting peak performance out of players at the elite level during a series is more about self-belief and confidence than techniques and biomechanics.

Head coach Darren Lehmann has a job in front of him to sort out the mind space of a team which appeared to be numbed by disbelief on that third afternoon in south Birmingham.

England, on the other hand, may have begun the series with only a faux regard that they could actually regain the Ashes.

Right now, they think they could rule the world, even without injured star Jimmy Anderson in the armoury.

They won’t win this though.

Australia can win and tie up the series. And going on current form, they can probably do it by a large margin.