Heartbroken Carlton has been denied a drought-breaking AFL finals berth by another Collingwood heist in a classic climax to the home-and-away season.

The Blues led by 24 points at three-quarter time after an eight-goal third term but Collingwood stormed home yet again to snatch a thrilling one-point win.

Collingwood star Jamie Elliott kicked a classic match-winner for the second time at the MCG this season as the Magpies prevailed 11.9 (75) to 10.14 (74).

Elliott had the 88,287 fans – the biggest AFL crowd since the 2019 grand final – stunned as he slotted a running goal at the 26-minute mark, following on from a miracle major by teammate Beau McCreery a few minutes earlier.

Carlton had opportunities to grab back the lead but were denied by Collingwood’s steely defence – and by kicking 0.6 to the Magpies’ 5.1 in the last quarter – leaving despondent Blues players to slump to the ground when the siren sounded.

Having started 2022 with an 8-2 record, Carlton is left with serious heartbreak after being in the top-eight all season until the final day.

Collingwood players embrace after the final siren after securing a top-four finish for the AFL finals. Photo: AAP

Needing to defeat the Magpies after the Western Bulldogs replaced the Blues in the last finals position through a 23-point win against Hawthorn earlier on Sunday, Carlton kicked only two goals outside of its third-quarter burst.

It follows a last-gasp defeat to reigning premier Melbourne last week. Even a draw in either of their final two games would have secured the Blues’ first finals appearance since 2013.

“They’re devastated,” Carlton coach Michael Voss said of his players.

“We didn’t want this season to end, we feel like we had more in us and clearly when we were in the position we were, we wanted to play finals footy.

“When it came down to those key moments, we couldn’t get it done, and it’s going to hurt for a bit.”

The Magpies will enter the finals after winning 12 of their past 13 games having kept their extraordinary record in close games alive.

After finishing 17th last season, Collingwood will have a double chance in the finals in Craig McRae’s first year as coach.

Collingwood sets up qualifying final against Geelong

The Blues started in nervous fashion and missed easy shots as Collingwood’s pressure overwhelmed them.

Carlton rebuilt, however, and its 8.3 was the first time since the famous 1970 grand final it had kicked eight goals in a third quarter against Collingwood at the MCG.

Ultimately, though, it was not enough, as Collingwood secured fourth place and a tantalising qualifying final at the MCG against minor premier Geelong .

“Even when they (Collingwood) started to close, I still felt quite confident we could still get it done, but just not for long enough,” Voss said.

“We’ve probably shown we’re somewhere between seven and 10 (on the ladder). Well, that’s not where we want to be, we want to be better than that.

“The reality is we’re not here just to make finals, we’re here to be a top-four footy club and we want to be sustainably great.”

Blues captain Patrick Cripps willed his team into the contest and was named best-on-ground, despite Carlton losing.

His stat line of 35 touches and 12 clearances was impressive, but his courage was inspiring after waving away trainers following a big friendly-fire hit from Jack Silvagni.

The Blues were forced to win the sudden-death showdown without star midfielder Sam Walsh, who was a late withdrawal with back soreness.

-AAP