Labor will claim the federal seat of Aston in a historic by-election win that has dealt a massive blow to the Liberal Party and its leader Peter Dutton.

ABC election analyst Antony Green called the election for candidate Mary Doyle just after 8pm on Saturday following a whopping eight per cent swing to Labor, which secured 42 per cent of the primary vote to the Liberals’ 36 per cent and the Greens’ 12 per cent.

The result in the Melbourne seat derails historical trends, with a governing party not winning a seat off the opposition at a by-election in more than 100 years.

An early swing towards Labor foreshadowed the Liberals’ demise in the mortgage-belt electorate, where Liberal candidate Roshena Campbell focused her campaign on the increasing cost of living and local infrastructure.

The election is a disastrous result for the Liberals in a vote that was widely viewed as a test of Mr Dutton’s leadership.

The win is a welcome surprise to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who claimed during the campaign that anything less than a massive majority for the Liberals would be an indictment on the opposition leader.

Labor’s Ms Doyle is a breast cancer survivor and former unionist who failed to take the seat at the last election.

She told AAP the Albanese government was making a difference for households doing it tough due to the rising cost of living through measures such as cheaper child care and cutting the cost of prescription medication.

Aston was held by the Liberals on a 2.8 per cent margin after former minister and outgoing member Alan Tudge suffered a large swing against him at the 2022 election. 

Other candidates for the seat were project manager Angelica Di Camillo (Greens), software engineer Owen Miller (Fusion) and libertarian Maya Tesa (independent).

-AAP