The fate of Australia’s last remaining Liberal premier is in the hands of the furious woman he just pushed out of cabinet.

Elise Archer resigned her commission as Tasmania’s Attorney-General last week only to take up a new role in a high-stakes political revenge play worthy of the title House of Cards: Hobart.

Archer is thinking about going back on her plans to quit Parliament altogether.

Much hangs on that choice, especially for Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff.

The Premier asked Archer to resign from cabinet last Friday following allegations of bullying by former staff.

Leaked messages showed she had disparaged a fellow cabinet colleague (“s–t”), a Liberal adviser (“an airhead”) and the Premier (“gutless”).

The Premier condemned a final leak showing Archer had told an adviser she was “sick of victim-survivors” of child sexual abuse, an issue that is the subject of a commission of inquiry.

(Archer said the comment related to people, including a family member, abusing her on a Facebook post).

She instead accuses aggrieved former staffers and the Premier of teaming up to force her out.

Tables could turn

The tables could turn decisively if she stays on as an independent.

Rockliff is the leader of a minority government, which holds only 11 of the 25 seats in the Tasmanian Lower House.

Two other Liberal MPs defected to the crossbench in May.

Archer has said she would consider supporting a Labor no-confidence motion against Rockliff, or backing the government – but only if it is led by a new premier.

Rockliff on Monday said he was aware of the potential consequences to his leadership when he asked for Archer’s resignation.

“I have no regrets about making that call,” he said.

“Culture has to change, and it starts with me.”

But Archer told the ABC she had blindsided the Premier.

“He should resign and call an election,” she said.

“He thought I’d stay on his own backbench after he sacked me.”

Unlike Rockliff, who is a strong supporter of the Indigenous Voice, Archer is from the conservative wing of the Liberals.

The Premier wants a guarantee that Archer will express confidence in the government, or for her to stand aside for a Liberal replacement.

She also has a third option, which would leave the minority government vulnerable to losing a parliamentary vote at any moment.

‘Very unstable’

“This is potentially a very unstable situation,” said Kevin Bonham, an election expert based in Tasmania.

“You can’t be continually fronting up to a Parliament where you don’t have the numbers and there’s constant uncertainty about whether the government can continue.”

Arthur Fadden lost a no-confidence motion in federal Parliament in 1941, ending his prime ministership.

The standoff could trigger an early election, something Rockliff had been hoping to avoid, and which would otherwise be held as late as next June.

Tasmanian MP John Tucker, who quit the government in May in a protest over transparency, predicted a leadership spill to resolve the situation.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese weighed into the controversy on Monday, saying Rockliff had made the right call.

“Quite clearly, there has been instability in the Tasmanian government,” he said. “And that is very unfortunate.”

Archer says she will take her time to think things over.