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Why Australia’s fire danger rating system is undergoing a major overhaul

Fire danger rating signs around the country are set to be replaced, with the introduction of a new system before bushfire season.

Although each state has long operated with individual fire rating systems, these will soon be discarded in favour of a cohesive, nationwide system.

Called the Australian Fire Danger Rating System (AFDRS), the system has been in the works for almost a decade.

Authorities say it will change the way fire danger is calculated and communicated, and hopefully improve accuracy and better communicate fire dangers to the public.

New signs

A refreshed fire danger ratings system will be adopted nationwide from September 1, with simplified signs to replace all existing signs.

Old fire danger signs are currently covered with stickers alerting communities to the changes.

The old signs will be replaced according to the communities whose fire season will arrive first.

Although the previous state systems have had six categories for each level of fire danger, the new system will have four levels.

Those levels are:

  • Moderate
  • High
  • Extreme, and
  • Catastrophic.

When there is minimal risk, the rating will be set at ‘No Rating’, which is the white bar that sits under the ‘Moderate’ segment on the sign.

The old fire danger rating system on the left, compared with the new nationwide system, seen on the right. Photo: Getty/VicEmergency

The simpler, the better

Australia’s fire ratings system has been largely unchanged since it was introduced in the 1950s and 1960s.

The redesign has been in the works since 2014, when the federal government first flagged it as a national priority.

The redesign came after the National Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC) conducted extensive research into the community, where it found the existing ratings system was easily confused and largely misinterpreted.

Although the ratings system was designed to assess how dangerous a fire would be if it did occur, it seemed that message did not translate for the most part.

The report found that the majority of respondents thought the rating system predicted how likely a fire would be to start.

It also found that there was an appetite for a system with simpler visuals, preferring a system with three or four rating levels, and featuring a colour palette of green, yellow, orange and red.

The new ratings system will also provide simple calls to action for each danger rating, making it easier for community members to understand what to do to stay safe.

Improved accuracy

Not only will the appearance of the fire danger signs be changed, but so will the way the fire danger risk is calculated and assessed.

Fire danger will now be calculated by the Fire Danger Calculation Engine.

Whereas the previous system combined two fire behaviour models, the new system will use eight models with fuel, weather and climate data to calculate risk.

It will then feed the information out to ‘‘various portals or feeds’’ to communicate fire danger to users.

The NSW Rural Fire Service says the system will also factor in all types of vegetation to determine potential fire danger, resulting in far more accurate assessments.

The previous system used bush and grass to assess potential risk, which only accounts for 20 per cent of Australia’s total vegetation.

‘‘In recent years, we’ve mapped the vegetation across the entire country. So instead of the current system using just bush and grass to determine the fire danger, the new system will use eight different types of vegetation – making it more accurate,’’ its website reads.

The system will be in place well before the beginning of bushfire season.

However, forecasts indicate we can expect yet another wet summer.

The national weather bureau has called a La Niña watch for the summer of 2022-23, citing a 50-50 chance another La Niña will form by summertime.

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