Scott Morrison’s Coalition faces an election wipeout as a new poll analysis points to collapse in support in every mainland state and every voter demographic since he replaced Malcolm Turnbull in a leadership spill.
Analysis of four Newspolls since the August 24 Liberal coup, published by The Australian on Tuesday morning, points to the possible loss of up to 25 seats across Australia based on two-party preferred swings since the 2016 election.
Since Mr Turnbull was deposed as Prime Minister, the national average primary vote swing against the government was 3 per cent, leaving the Coalition’s vote at 7.1 percentage points behind its 2016 election result.
While the most recent Newspoll, published October 14, showed signs that the Coalition was recovering ground, the new analysis of poll results for the quarter points to swings as high as 5 per cent in Queensland and 7 per cent in South Australia.
And while Mr Morrison is polling as a more popular leader than Mr Turnbull among voters aged 50 and over, his support is less among 18 to 34-year-olds and a point down with the 35 to 49-year-old bracket.
In Queensland, the Newspoll analysis shows an average primary vote swing of 5 per cent against the Coalition since the leadership spill, and a 10 per cent drop in support since the 2016 election.
On a two party preferred basis, the swing against the government is as high as 8.1 per cent and would cost the government up to 10 seats, including that of leadership aspirant Peter Dutton.
In two-party-preferred terms, Victoria has suffered a three-point drop in two-party preferred support since the spill, and 5.2 per cent since 2016, with four seats likely to be lost if an election were held today.
The federal government is not due to head to an election until May 2019, although it appears to have already lost its majority in Parliament after a massive swing against the Liberals in Saturday’s Wentworth by-election, where counting continues.
Likely Wentworth winner, independent Kerryn Phelps, told ABC’s Q&A program on Monday night that she was not looking to force the government into an early election, but would expect action on the ending of offshore detention and climate change.
“With an election looming in May next year, the government will be judged on its response to this [offshore detention] and I don’t think it will take a motion of no confidence to get some action,” Dr Phelps said.
Australian Border Force officials have revealed that 11 children were transferred from Nauru to Australia for medical attention late Monday.
Ms Phelps said the timing of the evacuations was a direct result of the Wentworth poll.