As Prime Minister Tony Abbott prepares to fly to New Zealand for political talks, a long white cloud hangs over his leadership at home, with one political analyst predicting his downfall within days.

Before he left, Mr Abbott told reporters he was “getting on with government” despite media reports that his main rival Malcolm Turnbull now has the numbers to seize power.

More Liberal MPs are understood to have joined the 39 out of 102 who supported a spill motion on February 9, but it is unclear whether it is now a party-room majority.

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 The deadline looms for Mr Turnbull to mount a challenge, with many commentators saying he must make the move before the NSW state election and his party’s second budget.

A fresh challenge is likely to be made at the next party-room meeting on Tuesday, a political analyst predicts.

Abbott has been touring cyclone-hit QLD, while a storm brews in Canberra. Photo: AAP

“I think it’s on,” Griffith University political analyst Paul Williams told AAP.

“He will go sooner rather than later.”

Dr Williams cited the PM’s dumping of party elder Philip Ruddock as chief political whip and his attack on Australian Human Rights Commission president Gillian Triggs as the “big” errors that make another challenge likely.

Dr Williams labelled Mr Abbott’s leadership “terminal” and expected him to lose a contest for the top job, if one were held next week.

The prime minister had been in “free fall” recently, Dr Williams said, while Mr Turnbull had played it “very smart”.

Mr Turnbull “has kept his leadership ambitions under check; I think he’s playing his cards correctly”, Dr Williams said.

He described Mr Turnbull’s recent appearance on ABC’s Q&A program as “textbook” and said all he needed now was a senior coalition figure publicly to “pat him on the shoulder” regarding the leadership.

“Then he’s the reluctant saviour of the Liberal Party,” Dr Williams added. “The way that he’s garnered the confidence back of his peers so quickly is surprising.”

Mr Abbott said on Friday that he would not be distracted by leadership speculation, and that every member of his government was focused on doing the right thing by Australians.

Mr Turnbull has said he would not fuel continued speculation about the leadership.

“I hope you understand that,” he said outside his Sydney home.

The controversy has followed Foreign Minister Julie Bishop to New Zealand, who has arrived there ahead of the PM.

Ms Bishop dismissed renewed leadership speculation as “rumour”, but tellingly said it was “self evident” that the party room appoints the prime minister.

This directly contradicts Mr Abbott’s repeated claims that the leader is chosen by Australian voters.

“There is a lot of work to be done and that’s where my focus is, on the domestic political agenda and my role as foreign minister,” said the Foreign Minister at a press conference.

“The motion for a leadership spill did not succeed and I urge my colleagues to get on with the job of governing the people of Australia,” she said.