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Labor Party tops state polls

The Labor Party has gained support with voters in every state, with the ALP ahead of the Liberal Party in some states by almost 20 per cent, according to the latest Morgan poll.

Victoria and Tasmania are ALP strongholds, with Labor leading in Victoria by a large margin on two-party-preferred terms, 59 per cent to 41 per cent.

In Tasmania, the ALP leads 55.5 per cent to 44.5 per cent.

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• Mike Baird most popular state leader

Despite gains in every state, the LNP still holds a firm lead in New South Wales, with Labor trailing in the NSW polls for most of Premier Mike Baird’s term.

Roy Morgan expects Mr Baird will be re-elected premier at the March 28 election, despite several Liberal MPs resigning following the Independent Commission into Corruption.

Read below to see how the major parties are faring in your state.

Queensland

Despite hard campaigning from both Labor and the Liberal National Party ahead of next weekend’s election, Roy Morgan executive chairman Gary Morgan says the outcome is still too close to call.

ANNASTACIA PALASZCZUK PRESSER

QLD Labor leader Annatacia Palaszczuk.

“This special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted over the last few days shows next week’s Queensland State Election too close to call with the LNP (50.5%) holding a narrow lead over the ALP (49.5%) on a two-party preferred basis,” Mr Morgan said.

Opposition Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk is ahead of Campbell Newman as preferred premier, 51.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent, with Mr Newman’s seat of Ashgrove set to be highly contested.

Mr Morgan says there’s a chance the LNP will win the January 31 election, with Labor’s primary vote trailing the government, 37 per cent to 39.5 per cent.

New South Wales

A change in leader has so far failed to secure major gains for Labor in the NSW poll, with the Liberal National government ahead on two-party-preferred terms, 54 per cent to 46 per cent.

Premier Mike Baird is also ahead of Opposition Leader Luke Foley as preferred leader by a large margin, 69 per cent to 31 per cent.

The LNP is tipped to easily win the March 28 election.

“In New South Wales the L-NP (54%) cf. ALP (46%) hold a strong lead on a two-party preferred basis and are heavily favoured to win re-election in late March,” Mr Morgan said.

“Premier Mike Baird (69%) is clearly preferred to new Opposition Leader Luke Foley (31%).”

Victoria

The newly elected Victorian Labor government is still enjoying a honeymoon period with voters, gaining a further 7 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote since the November election.

Daniel-Andrews-2

New Victorian Labor Premier Daniel Andrews.

Premier Daniel Andrews leads newly elected Liberal leader Matthew Guy as preferred leader by a whopping margin, 66.5 per cent to 33.5 per cent.

Mr Morgan said it was obvious “the new ALP Government of Daniel Andrews is enjoying a clear honeymoon period”, with Mr Andrews “clearly preferred to new Opposition Leader Matthew Guy”.

Victoria is one of the biggest Labor strongholds in Australia, ahead of the Liberal Party with a primary vote of 45 per cent to 35 per cent.

Western Australia

Labor has gained 2 per cent of two-party-preferred vote since November last year, and is now ahead of the Liberal National Party, 50.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent.

Liberal Premier Colin Barnett is significantly less popular with WA voters than Opposition Leader Mark McGowan, who leads as preferred leader, 61 per cent to 39 per cent.

Both the ALP and Liberal Party have a primary vote of 35.5 per cent, while the WA Nationals are on 6.5 per cent.

Roy Morgan says an election between the two parties would be too close to call.

South Australia

Roy Morgan says Labor would win against the LNP by a narrow margin, based on current polls, with the next election due in March 2018.

The South Australian Labor government holds a 4 per cent lead over the LNP in two-party-preferred terms, up slightly since November.

Jay Weatherill

South Australian Labor Premier Jay Weatherill.

Premier Jay Weatherill is also significantly more popular with SA voters than Opposition Leader Steve Marshall, leading as preferred premier by 16 per cent.

In the primary vote, the ALP has slipped by 3 per cent since November, with the LNP leading 39.5 per cent to 38 per cent.

Tasmania

While the current Tasmanian government is Liberal, the ALP is ahead of the LNP by a considerable margin in both the primary and two-party-preferred vote.

The ALP leads the primary vote, 39.5 per cent to 38.5 per cent, and on a two-party-preferred basis, Labor holds a clear lead of around 10 per cent.

The two-party preferred vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system, but Roy Morgan estimates ALP leads 55.5 per cent to 44.5 per cent.

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