Immediate action is needed to reshape the world’s energy sector in order to meet climate goals by 2050, including ending investments in new coal mines, oil and gas wells, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The 2015 Paris Agreement – a global climate pact to cap the rise in temperatures as close as possible to 1.5C to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change – requires achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
The number of countries that have pledged to reach net zero has grown, but even if commitments are fully achieved, there will still be 22 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide worldwide in 2050, which will lead to temperature rise of about 2.1C by 2100, according to the IEA’s Net Zero by 2050 report.
The report is intended to guide the next round of global climate talks which will take place in November in Scotland.
The @IEA just released the world’s first comprehensive roadmap for the global energy sector to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Our special report shows the pathway to net zero by 2050 is narrow but still achievable if governments act now.
— Fatih Birol (@fbirol) May 18, 2021
It sets out more than 400 milestones to achieving net zero, including no investment in new fossil fuel supply projects from now on and no further final investment decisions on new coal plants that don’t have carbon capture technology.
“The pathway to net zero is narrow but still achievable,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.
“If we want to reach net zero by 2050 we do not need any more investments in new oil, gas and coal projects.”
Australia is expected to announce an update on that policy at the Glasgow climate change conference, as required under the Paris Agreement, but not one that would match action promised by many developed countries.
Scientists have long said that unprecedented changes are needed in the way people use energy to live or we risk even more extreme weather and loss of species.
Global temperatures last year were among the highest on record.
Scientists attribute the rise and extreme weather mainly to greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide from fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.
To achieve net zero by 2035 there should also be no sales of new internal combustion engine passenger cars and the global electricity sector must reach net-zero emissions by 2040, the IEA said.
Massive deployment of renewable energy will be needed. Almost 90 per cent of electricity generation should come from renewables by 2050 and most of the rest from nuclear power.
Solar photovoltaic additions should reach 630 gigawatts a year by 2030 and wind power needs to rise to 390 gigawatts.
Together, this is four times the annual record set last year for new capacity additions.
New technologies that aren’t yet at commercial scale, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and green hydrogen, will also need to be brought to market, the report said.
Every month from 2030, 10 industrial plants will need to be fitted with CCS, three new hydrogen-based industrial plants will need to be built, and 2 gigawatts of electrolyser capacity for green hydrogen production needs to be added at industrial sites, the report said.
Annual energy investment will need to rise to $5 trillion a year by 2030 to achieve net zero, from $2 trillion today, adding an extra 0.4 percentage points a year to global GDP growth, according to a joint analysis by the IEA and the International Monetary Fund.