The Coalition has taken a significant hit in Queensland and Western Australia, where it has traditionally done well, and would have to restore support there to hold onto government, the latest Newspoll shows.
The poll, published in The Australian, shows the Morrison government would lose seats in the key resources states and faces collapse in South Australia.
The poll also shows the Coalition has lost more male voters than women voters since the Liberal party has been under pressure over the treatment of females in politics.
However, Scott Morrison himself remains personally popular and is the preferred prime minister over Labor’s Anthony Albanese, rising one point to 58 per cent while Mr Albanese remained on 28 per cent.
The latest poll comes as the federal government faces pressure from angry states over the slow vaccine rollout and amid the ongoing sexual assaults scandal.
On a two-party-preferred basis the Coalition now trails Labor 49-51 per cent averaged over the past four Newspolls.
In WA, where the Liberals were virtually wiped out in the recent state election, support for federal Labor surged from 32 per cent in December to 42 per cent in the latest quarterly analysis, while the Coalition dropped from 43 per cent to 40 per cent.
This produced a 12-percentage-point turnaround in the two-party-preferred vote from 53-47 in the Coalition’s favour in December to favour Labor 53-47 now, with the Coalition on track to be defeated in three WA seats.
The WA result indicates the state Liberal Party’s disastrous election result in March had an impact on support for the Morrison government.
In Queensland, Labor’s averaged primary vote rose from 29 per cent in December to 35 per cent in the latest survey while the Coalition dropped from 45 per cent to 42 per cent.
On a two-party-preferred basis that puts the Liberal National Party ahead 53-47, down from 57-43 in December and on track to lose four Queensland seats.
The only improvement for the Coalition in the two-party-preferred vote was in Victoria where Labor’s lead of 55-45 in the December analysis fell to 53-47.
The worst state for the Coalition is South Australia where its primary support fell six points to 38 per cent and federal Labor’s vote rose five points to 41 per cent, putting Labor at 55-45 on a two-party-preferred split.
In NSW, the Coalition dropped two points to a primary vote of 42 per cent with Labor flat at 36 per cent, producing a deadlocked 50-50 two-party-preferred vote.
The analysis found voters to have forsaken the Liberal party over the past three months have been overwhelmingly male.
Support from women, however, has remained relatively unchanged despite the ongoing scandal over the treatment of women in government.
According to The Australian, the male primary vote fell from 44 per cent in December to 41 per cent in March, while female voters remained stable at 41 per cent.
The demographic breakdown showed middle-income earners had the largest swing to Labor, with households with incomes between $50,000 and $99,000 increasing three points to to 39 per cent.
Voters with household incomes of between $100,000 and $149,000 also rose three points in favour of Labor to 37 per cent.