The global mean temperature will probably exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5 degrees in at least one of the next five years, according to a study presented by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in Geneva.
Chances were at 20 per cent that this average would be recorded in at least one year between 2020 and 2024.
Chances that one or more months during the next five years would be at least 1.5C warmer compared with pre-industrial levels – covering the period 1850 to 1900 – were about 70 per cent, the WMO reported.
“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – the enormous challenge ahead in meeting the Paris Agreement on Climate Change target of keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said on Thursday.
— BBC Weather (@bbcweather) July 9, 2020
The experts made a particularly drastic forecast for the Arctic region, which is likely to have warmed up this year by more than twice the global average.
In addition, the global mean temperature will probably exceed pre-industrial levels by 1 degree in each of the next five years.
The period between 2015 and 2019 has already been the warmest ever recorded.
The calculations led by Britain’s Met Office had taken into consideration “natural variations as well as human influences on climate”, the WMO reported.