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NZ’s next PM Chris Luxon will likely need at least one coalition partner as vote-counting continues

Chris Luxon didn't mince words in detailing his plans to change NZ's welfare state.

Chris Luxon didn't mince words in detailing his plans to change NZ's welfare state. Photo: AAP

Incoming Prime Minister Chris Luxon will convene the National Party’s brains trust at his Auckland home as he begins to build the next New Zealand government.

National were runaway winners in the October 14 poll, with 39 per cent of the nationwide party vote set to grow its 34-strong caucus to 50.

Short of a majority, Mr Luxon must form a coalition for the “strong and stable” government he desires.

The right-wing libertarians ACT are certain partners after winning nine per cent, or 11 MPs.

In his victory speech, Mr Luxon said “on current numbers, it looks like National and ACT will be in a position to form the next government”.

However, the completed preliminary count suggests National and ACT will need a third party involved, which would mean the return of Winston Peters’ New Zealand First to government.

NZ First was booted from parliament in 2020 after partnering with the Labour government, but rebuilt under their indefatigable 78-year-old leader.

They won 6.5 per cent of the party vote, with the Electoral Commission forecasting eight MPs. Their numbers could be critical for a number of reasons.

The count continues

Firstly, the count is not finalised, with roughly 567,000 “special votes” from overseas and out-of-electorate ballots to be added to the mix.

The special votes are included on November 3, and tend to favour parties of the left, which could shrink National and ACT’s tally of MPs.

Secondly, the parliament is likely to have at least 122 MPs due to electoral quirks.

Thirdly, Mr Luxon may decide he wants a bigger majority than a two-party coalition with ACT may provide.

Mr Luxon has not yet talked to Mr Peters, but after his victory speech, left a deal firmly on the table.

“I appreciated Winston Peters’ remarks tonight that he was here to help … I am also confident that National and ACT are going to work very well together,” he said.

New Zealand National Party leader Chris Luxon says he’s confident of forming a governing coalition.

The shape of the coalition will determine how many ministerial portfolios go to each party, and which party policies are adopted into the coalition agreement.

There is broad agreement between National and ACT on many issues – on tax relief, public sector cuts, tougher sentences, axing some of Labour’s climate initiatives and raising the pension age to 67.

“David Seymour and I have a good personal relationship. We’ve been neighbours for years and and we’ve got good alignment around what we’re trying to achieve,” Mr Luxon said.

A partnership with NZ First, however, would add a different dimension.

Mr Peters says New Zealand cannot afford tax relief, and must not raise the pension age, among other differing priorities.

‘That’s our brains trust’

On the morning after his election win, Mr Luxon said he wouldn’t negotiate his coalition “through the media” and would instead sit down with senior MPs to talk it through.

“That’s our brains trust of MPs that will come together … to talk through how we plan out the next few weeks,” he said.

Campaign chair Chris Bishop said “nothing can happen” until the special votes are included in three weeks.

“It’s literally the morning after. Let’s just digest a bit … we need to get the lie of the land,” he told TVNZ.

Mr Luxon is in a hurry to get moving. He has laid out a 100-day plan and a mini-budget, and has pledged to extend parliamentary sittings through to Christmas.

“We have work to do and we are under new management and we have to deliver for all Kiwis,” he said.

He has also pledged to make his first overseas trip to Australia, prior to committed travel to the Pacific Islands Forum and APEC in mid-November.

Despite not yet holding office, he has already ticked off one priority, saying on Saturday night he would “get up and watch the All Blacks smash Ireland”.

After New Zealand’s 28-24 triumph in the Rugby World Cup quarter-final, Mr Luxon popped up for media duties in an All Blacks shirt.

“We’ve got a National-led government and we also have the All Blacks back on track which is fantastic,” he beamed.

-AAP

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