Australian airfares are skyrocketing as airports prepare to be inundated with passengers thanks to the potent combination of school holidays, a surprise public holiday, and this weekend’s AFL grand final.

Spring school holidays are underway in Victoria and Queensland, and begin on Friday in NSW and the ACT, sparking an expected holiday rush.

It will coincide with this Thursday’s one-off public holiday to mark the Queen’s death and, in Victoria at least, Friday’s pre-grand final public holiday.

Saturday’s AFL grand final is expected to draw 100,000 fans to the MCG to watch the Sydney Swans play Geelong. It has created something of a perfect storm on the already busy Sydney-Melbourne route.

The AFL’s season-ender will be followed by the NRL men’s and women’s grand finals in Sydney on October 2.

The mix of events could provide the perfect excuse for a quick getaway, but if you’re yet to make plans, it could be too late for this weekend.

One-way Qantas flights between Sydney and Melbourne this Friday are selling for as much as $2500; a seat with Virgin Australia on the same route will cost up to $759, and even low-cost carrier Jetstar is capitalising on demand, with seats ranging reaching more than $950.

Packed-out flights also mean packed-out airports; Sydney Airport is forecasting nearly 2.4 million passengers will pass through its terminals between Monday, September 19, and Sunday, October 9, surpassing the 2.1 million in the equivalent 21-day June-July school holiday period.

After struggling to keep up with passenger numbers during the last couple of holiday periods, when security lines snaked outside the terminals, Sydney Airport CEO Geoff Culbert said the airport was now better-prepared to handle the demand.

But he warned passengers should continue to arrive two hours prior to departure for domestic flights, and three hours ahead for international. Qantas issued a similar warning on Monday, as it warned it faced ‘challenges’ keeping up with demand in the looming holiday period.

Sydney Airport remains in the midst of a labour shortage as it searches for workers to fill about 4000 roles across security, airlines, baggage handling and retail.

“The school holidays will test us again, and we are expecting the terminals to be busy during peak periods, especially Thursday, Friday and Monday mornings,” Mr Culbert said.

“We will have more than 60 additional customer service staff in the terminals every day guiding passengers and bringing people forward in order of flight priority at peak times.” 

In Melbourne, meanwhile, airport chief executive Lorie Argus said 1.5 million people were expected to pass through the terminals as people took advantage of the holidays or arrived to watch the football final.

“The airport will be busy, so we’d encourage passengers to allow plenty of time to help take pressure off themselves and the system,” she said.

“The recent work the airlines have been doing to improve their operational performance is starting to show in their on-time data, and our team is doing what we can to support them.”

A daily average of 74,684 people used Melbourne Airport in August – more than than the 73,805 travellers throughout all of August 2021, as travel’s rebound continues.

Updated to reflect Qantas ticket availability. Previous version stated Sydney-Melbourne economy tickets for September 24 were sold out.