Donald Trump is right to say unemployment is far worse than official numbers say, according to one of Australia’s leading pollsters.

Throughout the election campaign, Mr Trump said the official US unemployment rate of 4.9 per cent was “phoney” and “a hoax”, and was in fact as high as 20 or 25 per cent. In a moment of hyperbole, he even said it was more than 40 per cent.

Gary Morgan, executive chairman of Roy Morgan Research, agreed with the US president-elect. He said Australia’s official rate, calculated similarly to the US figure, does not reflect the true extent of the problem.

“Donald Trump said this from day one. He understood it, and campaigned on the basis that there is real unemployment and underemployment,” Mr Morgan told The New Daily on Tuesday.

“They [politicians and economists] all know the data’s wrong and they won’t do anything about it.

“[Australian prime minister Malcolm] Turnbull will get thrown out unless he faces the fact.”

According to Roy Morgan’s most recent monthly survey, Australia’s official number of 5.4 per cent should actually be closer to 9.2 per cent.

By the company’s estimate, 1.188 million Australians were looking for work in October, and thus presumably unemployed – a much bigger number than the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports.

Some key differences include:

• the ABS uses an internationally agreed standard, whereas Roy Morgan uses its own measure;
• the ABS counts ’employment’ as at least one hour a week, even if unpaid, whereas Roy Morgan counts anyone looking for work as ‘unemployed’;
• the ABS’ sample size is larger. For example, in September the ABS surveyed about 50,000 people, whereas Roy Morgan surveyed 4870;
• the ABS results are seasonally adjusted, whereas Roy Morgan figures are ‘raw’;
• the ABS conducts both face-to-face and telephone interviews, whereas Roy Morgan’s surveys are always face-to-face; and
• The ABS age limit for survey respondents is 15 years of age, whereas Roy Morgan counts 14 year olds as well.

The limitations of the internationally-agreed definition of ‘unemployment’ are well-known. Many experts acknowledge that the one-hour cutoff for the definition of employment can seem rather arbitrary, and that a layperson might be confused by the fact that workers who have given up actively looking for work are not counted as ‘unemployed’.

The Reserve Bank board, headed by Governor Philip Lowe, has noted a rise in underemployment in ABS data. Photo: Getty

Professor John Buchanan, dean of business analytics at the University of Sydney’s business school, said the ABS is simply following international protocols and is “not disguising the problem”.

“When you look at underemployment and discouraged workers, you actually do get a much higher number, so I’m not going to join in the ABS bashing exercise.”

At its November board meeting, the Reserve Bank spent substantial time discussing an “unusual” rise in underemployment reported by the ABS (which was also visible in Roy Morgan’s data).

Board members noted the modest improvement in the official employment rate was driven by a growth in part-time rather than full-time employment, according to minutes released on Tuesday.

The Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) recently warned of an underemployment “crisis”.

“The latest jobs figures confirm there is an employment crisis in Australia, with more and more working people being forced to take insecure casual or part-time positions over permanent full-time positions,” president Ged Kearney said.

The ACTU called on the government to create more public sector jobs, and devote funding to education and training.

Click here to see Roy Morgan’s data in full