Australia may have a supply shortage of more than 160,000 houses across the next decade, modelling from the nation’s housing investment body indicates.
A new report by the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation details a “remarkable” 18 months in Australian housing after the largest population shock in a century.
Difficulties accessing new land is seeing demand “rapidly” outpace supply with a potential six-year lag in getting new housing supply to market, the corporation’s State of the Nation’s Housing report finds.
Any pulling back on developments now would affect available affordable housing for years to come, it states.
The corporation said authorities should not stop new housing supply flow, or risk putting upward pressure on rents and prices.
The most in-demand dwellings are apartments and one or two-person houses, making up 64 per cent of growth.
The research also found movement from cities to outer metropolitan areas through the COVID-19 pandemic has increased regional dwelling prices by 26 per cent in 2021, compared with 21 per cent growth in capital cities.
In Victoria, regional dwelling prices increased 30 per cent, which is more than double the rate in Melbourne.
But the report also found that while ongoing movement to the regions is possible, it remains to be seen if this trend will persist.
NHFIC chief executive Nathan Dal Bon said the report covered extensive housing issues caused largely by the pandemic.
“It has been a remarkable past 18 months for Australia’s housing markets, with the largest population shock in a century, unprecedented government stimulus, a widespread flight to the regions, and accelerating house price growth and tightening rental markets impacting housing affordability,” he said.
With lower than forecast migration, Australia’s 2031 population is now predicted to be 1.5 million below pre-pandemic estimates.