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Mixed messages ahead of budget confusing voters

AAP

AAP

Scott Morrison is completely right when he says Tuesday night’s budget is no usual bit of housekeeping.

“It’s a plan for jobs and growth.”

More than that, it’s a road map for the Coalition to retain government at the election to be called within a week of being delivered.

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At the weekend Malcolm Turnbull insisted this manifesto is the Turnbull government’s, not Abbott’s. More change than continuity. The problem is the message is confusing, if not baffling.

The confusion comes from the different emphases of the PM and his sidekick, the Treasurer. On the one hand we will have a government “living within its means”, while on the other “it is pointless trying to predict” when the budget will be back in surplus.

Mr Morrison told The Australian Financial Review the public is no longer obsessed either. What matters was that voters can be confident that the government had a plan to get the budget into balance “one step at a time”.

But in the meantime, we are told, events outside the government’s control may knock it and the economy off course. A very convenient get-out-of-jail card that the Treasurer and his colleagues never allowed their political opponents.

AAP

Scott Morrison says the 2016 budget is a plan for jobs and growth. Photo: AAP

More to the point, Mr Morrison told Laurie Oakes we will see both gross and net debt “peak over the next five or six years” and then it will start to fall. That can only mean he will be adding to it with his deficits. He, or at least the Coalition, has already done that in the past two budgets.

Economist Stephen Koukoulous gives it some perspective when he points out that gross government debt is $424 billion and on track to hit $550 billion. And yet there is talk of tax cuts.

“Who would have believed it?” he asks.

What it means, of course, is that the argument about manageable debt has been won by Labor. Not that the penny has dropped for Barnaby Joyce. He is still attacking the ALP for putting everything on the national “credit card”.

The fact is whenever a budget is in deficit, everything is on the credit card. So all the goodies in the budget are being paid for by borrowings. Mr Morrison reminded the National Press Club that Mr Abbott and Joe Hockey had $80 billion worth of spending but only $70 billion worth of savings. That, of course, is on top of the structural debt that keeps accumulating.

Of course all of these numbers and claims and economic theories and ideologies can do voters’ heads in. So Mr Turnbull distils the message down to: “Who do you trust?” Sound familiar? John Howard used it against Mark Latham in 2004. At least he and his treasurer had an impressive track record of surpluses and leadership stability by then.

AAP

A stack of the 2016-2017 Budget Papers ready to be delivered. Photo: AAP

To inspire confidence, some sort of story that lasts longer than a few days or even a few months is surely needed. If we can believe inspired leaks to the media, addressing bracket creep in some measure for those earning $80,000-plus is back on the table.

Although Mr Turnbull refused to confirm it in parliament, especially when the Opposition Leader framed his question by pointing out four out of five Tasmanians earn less than $80,000, as is the case in regional Queensland.

The sting was in the tail: “Why is the prime minister giving large tax cuts to multinationals … and absolutely nothing” to these voters,” Mr Shorten asked.

Wait and see was the answer.

Tuesday night is not only make-or-break for Mr Morrison’s first budget but it is also critical for the Prime Minister.

The latest Morgan Poll has Labor in front 51-49 per cent on two-party preferred. Too close to call but almost no margin for error.

Paul Bongiorno AM is a veteran of the Canberra Press Gallery, with 40 years’ experience covering Australian politics. He is Contributing Editor for Network Ten, appears on Radio National Breakfast and writes a weekly column on national affairs for The New Daily. He tweets at @PaulBongiorno

For more columns from Paul Bongiorno, click here

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