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The ASX eyes important psychological mark as inflation data commands attention

US stockmarkets extended their rebound to lock in a third straight week of gains.

The rally was supported by the continued flow of better-than-expected second-quarter earnings reports and relief that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan came and went without “serious consequences”.

In Australia, the ASX200 closed higher for a third straight week of gains and 9.5 per cent above its June low.

The rally was supported by the rebound on Wall Street and a dovish surprise from the RBA at its meeting this week.

Here are the top five things to watch in markets this week:

1. Australian June-half reporting season picks up pace

The Australian June half-year reporting season picks up the pace this week.

Investors will be keen to find out how companies have fared during the second half of the 2022 financial year.

Of particular interest will be finding out which companies have been able to pass on higher costs, and which companies have been forced to wear them.

2. July inflation data in focus

A fall in petrol and energy prices is expected to see headline inflation fall to 8.7 per cent year on year from 9.1 per cent in June.

Core inflation, which strips out the volatile price categories of food and energy, is expected to rise from 5.9 per cent to 6.1 per cent.

3. Q2 earnings season rolls on

More than 85 per cent of US Standard & Poor 500 companies have reported earnings for the June quarter, and results have been much better than expected.

Earnings season rolls on this week with reports from Disney, Coinbase, Rivian and Roblox.

Disney, in particular, continues to bounce back from the pandemic.

The market is forecasting revenue to rise 23 per cent from last year to $21.0 billion in the third quarter, and adjusted earnings per share is forecast to increase 20 per cent to $0.96.

4. Can the ASX200 cement a toehold?

Last week, the ASX200 posted its first weekly close above the psychologically important 7000 point level since late May.

Can the ASX200 cement a firm toehold above 7000, or will it prove to be a bridge too far?

5. US jobs data to bring out the hawkish Fed Speak

Following an extremely promising US jobs report on Friday night, the odds of a 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed in September have risen to 66 per cent.

A host of Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled to hit the wires this week, including San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly, Chicago Fed president Charles Evans, and Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari, and will have the opportunity to guide the market towards 75 basis points or back toward 50 basis points.

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All trading carries risk. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.
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