The last of China’s trade sanctions on Australian goods are expected to end with an official visit from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to Beijing later this year.

The more than $20 billion in trade restrictions China began slapping on a range of Australian products in 2019 have been gradually wound back in recent months, with producers of barley the latest to receive relief under a thawing of relations between Canberra and Beijing.

But about $2.5 billion in restrictions on goods like wine and lobsters remain in place ahead of Mr Albanese’s Beijing visit, which was announced at the ASEAN summit in Indonesia this week.

James Laurenceson, director of the Australia China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS), said there has already been “very significant” unwinding in trade restrictions over a “fairly compact” period of time, though some restrictions remain in place.

He said Canberra is likely hoping a World Trade Organisation (WTO) dispute over wine exports into China will be resolved behind closed doors before Mr Albanese flies to Beijing.

That will provide a pathway to resolve the wine dispute so that it doesn’t hang over the official visit, which will be the first time an Australian leader has gone to China since 2016.

“The wine case, like barley, was always going to be running on a separate track because it’s the subject of a formal WTO dispute process,” Mr Laurenceson said.

“It took until the WTO informed both sides of a decision in March that then led to a diplomatic solution being struck the following month.

“Canberra is hoping that the WTO decision gets circulated to both parties this month or next, and then a turbo-charged barley-like process wraps up just before Albanese gets on the plane to Beijing.”

Albanese upbeat

Mr Albanese was upbeat this week when describing thawing relations with Beijing under his government following an in-person meeting with China’s Premier Li Qiang on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit.

“We had a frank and constructive discussion, welcomed ongoing progress in stabilising our bilateral relationship, and the renewed engagement between our two countries,” Mr Albanese said of the meeting.

“I raised a range of bilateral and other issues of importance to Australia, including remaining trade impediments, consular cases and human rights. We discussed and shared perspectives on regional and international security issues.”

The biggest test for thawing relations will come when Mr Albanese flies to Beijing, with the official reason for the visit being the 50th anniversary of Gough Whitlam’s trip to the people’s republic in 1973.

The Labor government’s China pivot, which has been defined by a slogan repeated by Mr Albanese this week – “co-operate where we can, disagree where we must” – has put Australia’s relationship with China on a new trajectory even amid heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing, and Australia’s controversial participation in AUKUS.

But Mr Laurenceson says Beijing is likely to use some of its remaining trade restrictions, such as those affecting lobster producers, as leverage to ensure Canberra continues to play nice.

“I find it hard to explain the persistence of that one [lobster] in any other terms than Beijing regards it is leverage for reminding Canberra that it should take China’s interests into account,” he said.

“My own view is that it will have no impact on Canberra’s decision-making, and if anything, is counterproductive for China’s interests.”