Advertisement

RBA tells borrowers what they wanted to hear

Consequently, Australia’s household debt to GDP ratio is amongst the highest in the world.

Consequently, Australia’s household debt to GDP ratio is amongst the highest in the world.

The Reserve Bank has not only held the official cash rate where it is, but has signalled that rate cuts aren’t imminent.

In its July decision, issued on Tuesday afternoon, the RBA kept the official cash rate at a record-low 1.5 per cent for the 10th time in a row.

“Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time,” Governor Philip Lowe said in the statement’s final paragraph.

This coded message is a strong hint that, if economic conditions remain the same, there will be no rate increase in August either.

If the central bank was contemplating a rate hike, it would normally say something like: “Over the period ahead, further information should allow the Board to refine its assessment of the outlook for growth and inflation and to make any adjustment to the stance of policy that may be appropriate.”

Speculation had been mounting that the RBA would include such a paragraph, given its counterparts in the US and UK are eyeing rate increases.

This had been heightened by former RBA board member Dr John Edwards, who wrote last week that we could be in for eight rate hikes in the next two years if the economy grows as strongly as Treasury has predicted.

The absence of a bias to lift rates will come as a relief to borrowers.

It was no surprise to economists, who had widely predicted the central bank would stay at 1.5 per cent given the fact that core inflation remains below 2 per cent, which fails to meet the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent growth.

There have been promising signs in the labour market, such as a slight reduction in unemployed and an increase in job advertisements.

But underemployment remains at an all-time high (based on trend estimates), economic growth is sluggish and wages growth is at a record-low 1.9 per cent per year.

Investors expect the official cash rate to remain unchanged for the rest of the year, based on the yield curve in the futures market.

Stay informed, daily
A FREE subscription to The New Daily arrives every morning and evening.
The New Daily is a trusted source of national news and information and is provided free for all Australians. Read our editorial charter
Copyright © 2024 The New Daily.
All rights reserved.