The Oscars 2020 race looks more predictable than usual after a handful of films and people (1917, Brad Pitt, Renee Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix) have pretty much scooped the pool during awards season.

But the Academy Awards often doesn’t follow a script.

Here’s who should win and who will win:

Best picture

Who should win: Bong Joon Ho’s smash hit Parasite. If it does win, it will be the first non-English-language film to take home the award.

Who will win: The bro-fest that is The Irishman is a guaranteed winner for the pale, male, and stale voters that make up the Academy, although Quentin Tarantino’s problematic ode to Hollywood, Once Upon A Time … In Hollywood, might creep in there.

Lead actor

Who should win: Antonio Banderas for Pain and Glory. It’s not only the best performance of last year, but also Banderas’ career best turn.

Who will win: I think the Academy will go safe here and throw another Oscar at seven-time nominee Robert De Niro (The Irishman).

Lead actress

Who should win: Scarlett Johansson is deserving for her nuanced performance in Marriage Story with special mention to Charlize Theron’s transformation into Megyn Kelly for Bombshell.

Who will win: This is ScarJo’s first Oscar nomination – and she’s in two categories. If they don’t award her for JoJo Rabbit then she’s sure to swoop up the Oscar here.

Supporting actor

Who should win: Joe Pesci, The Irishman. The film itself is bloated and lethargic, but Pesci is electric.

Who will win: The Irishman has two nominations in this category so it’s likely to be Al Pacino or Pesci.

Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit. Photo: Fox Searchlight Pictures

Supporting actress 

Who should win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story. Dern is at the peak of her career right now and this film wonderfully showcases her on-screen charisma, comic timing and emotional depth.

Who will win: Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit) over Margot Robbie (Bombshell.)

Best director

Who should win: Bong Joon Ho, Parasite.

Who will win: Tarantino is a potential winner here but I think the award will go to Scorsese because the only thing the Academy likes more than films about Hollywood is films that resurrect former Hollywood stars for familiar storylines about men being men.

Adapted screenplay

Who should win: Greta Gerwig for Little Women.

Who will win: Either Steven Zaillian for The Irishman or Anthony McCarten for The Two Popes.

Original screenplay

Who should win: This is a tough one. Either Rian Johnston’s zingy wordplay in Knives Out or Noah Baumbach’s achingly accurate prose in Marriage Story.

Who will win: I feel the Academy might side with me: Baumbach.

Cinematography

Who should win: Roger Deakins for 1917.

Who will win: Roger Deakins for 1917. Some things are just objectively perfect.

Best international feature film

Who should win: While I’d love for Parasite to snap up best film and this one, Pedro Almodovar’s beautiful, semi-autobiographical meditation of desire, pain, and memory, Pain and Glory is pure cinematic genius.

Who will win: Parasite. The Academy will want to prevent the outbreak of mass protests. Led by me.

Original score

Who should win: Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker.

Who will win: Randy Newman for Marriage Story or Thomas Newman for 1917.

Visual effects

Who should win: 1917 is imbued with so many subtle visual effects that seamlessly bring the horrors of wartime to life in a dramatic and often exceptionally poetic way.

Who will win: The Irishman. Because of course.

The 2020 Academy Awards will screen live on Seven at noon on Monday (AEST)