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Buddy v Hawthorn: grand final heaven

Cyril Rioli did not hit full pace in his stint with the Box Hill Hawks. Photo: Getty

Cyril Rioli did not hit full pace in his stint with the Box Hill Hawks. Photo: Getty

There’s a strong sense of deja vu about this grand final except that the central character has changed sides.

Two years ago Hawthorn and Sydney squared off in a grand final and Lance Franklin was key, as ever.

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He kicked 3.4 and one out on the full in a narrow loss, playing brilliantly other than for his finishing, and a hobbled Ted Richards (playing on a bung ankle) outplayed him in the remarkable final quarter. Had Franklin kicked his fourth, midway through the final quarter, he might well have won the Norm Smith Medal and Hawthorn won, that’s how tight it was.

Franklin was distraught after the 2012 loss to Sydney, in which he kicked 3.4 and one out on the full. Photo: Getty

Franklin was distraught after the 2012 loss to Sydney, in which he kicked 3.4 and one out on the full. Photo: Getty

But he missed.

Hawthorn supporters winced as they watched him run out on his arc and then pull or slice the shots; Sydney supporters have already experienced it and most likely will go through the same torture this Saturday.

It is pleasurable pain, of course, for Franklin is one of the best players to watch in history. It is just that he is flawed ever so slightly, and while Alastair Clarkson would not have wanted to see Buddy go after the 2013 premiership, he knows that with his new spread-the-load forward half, he has less angst and still scores heavily, No. 1 in the competition.

Franklin could quite easily win or lose the grand final for Sydney, it’s that simple. He could kick 8.1 or 1.8.

A couple of million eyeballs will be locked upon him. All week, the media in Melbourne will focus on his playing against his original team, even though Hawthorn knows only too well that Sydney is much more than Buddy. The Swans have the best midfield in the competition, for a start.

Block your ears if you are already tiring of the Buddy v Hawthorn story angle, because it’s the main event, the heavyweight championship of the world.

He has played twice against his old club this year, kicking two late goals in the first encounter after his old mate Josh Gibson curtailed him for a long time, finishing with 2.7 in the Swans’ win. Second time around Hawthorn won and Gibson played well, but Franklin kicked 3.5, which is not a bad return.

They are all pragmatic about it, but Jarryd Roughead made an instructive comment on ABC Radio when he was asked what it feels like to play against his mate in a grand final. “It won’t feel right, will it? But that’s the decision he made,” said Roughead, who shapes as being as big a factor in the game as Franklin, the man with whom he was drafted to the club in 2004, a premiership teammate twice.

So the dye has been cast. This is the grand final we had to have.

Brian Lake will go to Kurt Tippett. Photo: Getty

Brian Lake will go to Kurt Tippett. Photo: Getty

The match-ups

Josh Gibson gets his pal Franklin, and it’s a decent match-up for the Hawks. It is the biggest contest of the game. Brian Lake gets Kurt Tippett and Hawthorn will be happy with that. If Sam Reid plays, Ben Stratton probably takes him and that leaves possibly Matt Suckling or Grant Birchall with Adam Goodes.

At the other end, Ted Richards is the No. 1 option for Jarryd Roughead, but Heath Grundy tends to take him if he comes up the ground. Nick Smith will go straight to Luke Breust, as he has in the past, and that leaves either Dane Rampe or Nick Malceski on Jack Gunston, which is a worry for Sydney.

In the middle Sydney began using the quick Harry Cunningham as a tagger a few weeks ago and he eclipsed Brent Harvey, so he will likely take Brad Hill, who has become so dangerous. Isaac Smith also will get close attention, perhaps from Ben McGlynn. Sydney tends not to tag too much and most likely will leave Kieren Jack, Dan Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker and the others to go head-to-head in the middle.

The hunger

These teams went to this show just two years ago but there are a few players who do not have a premiership to their names, and Ben McGlynn is the most obvious. He tore a hamstring in the 2012 qualifying final and did not quite get up for the grand final, and he was at Hawthorn when it won in 2008, but only played a handful of games. The likes of Dane Rampe, Jake Lloyd and Harry Cunningham for Sydney, and on Hawthorn’s team, Jon Ceglar, Matt Spangher, Will Langford and Matthew Suckling (injured last year) are chasing the dream.

Cyril Rioli did not hit full pace in his stint with the Box Hill Hawks. Photo: Getty

Cyril Rioli did not hit full pace in his stint with the Box Hill Hawks. Photo: Getty

The Cyril question

Andrew Russell, Hawthorn’s conditioning guru, sat behind the bench at the VFL grand final and oversaw Cyril Rioli’s return to football to the minute, literally, with a member of the staff using a stopwatch to time his stints on the ground.

Rioli did not play all that well; not surprisingly since he had not been on the park for two months. But the way Hawthorn has handled him suggests he will play, at least as the substitute. Even if the Hawks extracted five or 10 minutes of his magic, it might tip the match their way. That would be the thinking. But Rioli is nowhere near his best.

Selection

Selection will be interesting because both Brad Sewell and Ben McEvoy were held back from Box Hill’s VFL grand final. McEvoy might replace Ceglar and Sewell’s hard body would surely be handy against Sydney with its waves of midfielders, not to mention that Sewell is the customary Hawthorn match-up for Josh Kennedy. Jordan Lewis will surely get up from a corkie and I doubt Sam Reid’s jarred knee will stop him playing. He has been struggling with knee soreness for some time.

I see Sydney being unchanged but Hawthorn making some tweaks.

Thoughts from the prelims

Sydney was awesome, but opponent North Melbourne was a sixth-ranked team, playing on the road and in a third final. How important is straight kicking? Just ask Port Adelaide, which managed 3.9 in the first quarter against Hawthorn. No one will ever know what it would have meant if that was, say, 7.5. Hawthorn tends to find a way. It’s been the mantra of their season.

Overall Sydney has been the more impressive in the finals, but also has had a slightly easier draw because it finished on top. And the MCG as a venue is worth a goal or two for Hawthorn.

Early tip

Sydney has the best team, in my view, by a couple of goals. But it depends how they perform on the day, and dare I say, how straight they kick. The Swans defend well (No. 1 in the competition) and can score (No. 4). The waves of midfielders are the biggest issue for opposition teams, and then there’s Franklin, Tippett, Reid and Goodes. Swans by 12 points.

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