For the first time since the introduction of the top eight, two sides who finished outside the top four – North Melbourne and Port Adelaide – will play in preliminary finals.

Two of the competition’s less glamorous clubs, they will be taking on superpowers in Sydney and Hawthorn. Still, they are not without hope, having won encounters with their cashed-up rivals during the home-and-away season.

We look at their prospects in next weekend’s David and Goliath preliminary finals.

Sydney v North Melbourne
Friday, ANZ Stadium, 7.50 pm

Remember: Sydney will be a strong favourite at home but North Melbourne beat the Swans in April, and at the SCG to boot. The Kangaroos have also beaten Port Adelaide and Hawthorn in 2014, making them 3-0 against the remaining teams, a point that Brad Scott was quick to make after the semi-final. So do not write them off as an afterthought.

A quick history lesson is in order. It is often said that no one has come from below fifth (Adelaide 1997) to win a flag but this is untrue. Melbourne won from sixth in 1900 in the old VFL, before the final four system that lasted for many years was introduced. There was a round-robin series and Melbourne won. North would be the first to win from outside the top four since the current finals system came into place in 2000.

Brent Harvey faces a nervous wait while his clash with Joel Selwood is assessed. Photo: Getty

Key factors: While Sydney might prefer to play this game at the SCG, North is underprepared for a game at Homebush, having played just one game there in its history, a losing elimination final in 2008. Only five current North players – Harvey, Firrito, Wells, Petrie and Thomas – have set foot at the place. Teams who travel to the narrow Olympic stadium tend to kick out on the full a lot.

North’s defence will confront its greatest challenge, far greater than what it saw against Geelong. Thompson (probably on Franklin), Grima (Tippett) and Firrito (Reid) must find a way to curtail the Swans’ so-called ‘Bondi Billionaires’ and there are Sydney’s smaller forwards rotating through the front half like McGlynn and Parker to be concerned about, too. Sydney has huge scoring power and this will most likely shape the game.

Wildcard: North’s best chance is if it is wet. Sydney has shown itself to be vulnerable in these games over the past two-three years, and rain could potentially neutralise Reid and Tippett, though not so much Franklin who can play at ground level and does not rely so heavily on overhead marking.

Will Boomer play? ‘Boomer’ Harvey’s bump on Joel Selwood in the semi-final is not an especially serious incident but his carryover points and the the AFL’s stance on high contact makes him vulnerable to a one-week suspension. If the AFL is to apply its own rules, then he is in trouble.

There has been a wave of sympathy for Harvey, a popular figure, but think about it this way: surely Selwood, running 15 metres from the ball and soon nursing a gashed eye, is entitled to some protection. The high contact was an accident, and it screams out for a reprimand.

Sadly our judicial system has little flexibility built in, and Harvey’s loading and carryover points from the recent incident might well cost him a place in North’s biggest final since 2007. (See the incident in the video below and make up your own mind.)

Tip: The Roos have been playing with a certain swagger that comes from carrying few expectations; in other words, just playing. But this might just be a reality check. The Swans will overwhelm them in midfield and they have the scoring power to win this provided it’s a dry track. Sydney by 22 points

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide
Saturday, MCG, 4.45 pm

Remember: Port Adelaide beat Hawthorn at this year’ s only meeting, by 14 points in round 10 at Adelaide Oval. It was a cracking game in which the Hawks came late, and Port needed to steady.

Will Cyril put his hand up? Rioli watches Sunday’s VFL preliminary final between the Box Hill Hawks and Williamstown. Photo: Getty

Key factors: Port is an offensive team that likes to run in front of the football – run and gun and have some fun. Generally, these teams are swept away in finals because they are caught out with turnovers, but Port under Hinkley run back hard as well, and they are are also tough in close. It’s a potent mix. Not even Fremantle could keep the Power below 100 points, so that’s an indication of how well Hawthorn need to defend this week.

The good news for Al Clarkson is that his team can defend as well as attack. The trick to beating Port is to slow them down; steal their run and carry, deny them the football, as Fremantle did in the first half of the semi-final. Plus the Hawks need to find a match-up for Chad Wingard (maybe Ben Stratton, although it is not immediately obvious), who is born for this stage, and for Travis Boak (likely Liam Shiels).

Port will have issues of its own. Kane Cornes may take Sam Mitchell, but the Power also need to be mindful of Brad Hill’s speed and creativity. Down the back they have to find a way to stop Jarryd Roughead (Alipate Carlisle), Jack Gunston and Luke Breust.

Wildcard: Could Hawthorn unleash Cyril Rioli as the substitute? It will be tempting if he can train well this week. The notion that he might need to play only a quarter or so gives Rioli a chance which he might not otherwise have after his chronic hamstring trouble.

Tip: Port is a remarkable story given where it came from just a few short years ago, and we know that they will run the game out strongly. But Hawthorn has strength in all areas and is brilliantly coached. So long as the Hawks do not allow the Power to get the ball on the outside, they should win. Hawthorn by 8 points