Manly Sea Eagles (2) v South Sydney Rabbitohs (3)

Friday 7:55pm at Allianz Stadium

Comprehensively outplayed in a 30-16 loss to North Queensland that cost them top spot, the Manly Sea Eagles will host the highly-fancied South Sydney Rabbitohs – who are also coming off a disappointing defeat to the Roosters – in a fiery grudge match.

Manly will have to stop Sam Burgess. Photo: Getty

What the Sea Eagles need to go right: Manly must recalibrate after the disappointment of surrendering the minor premiership, and rediscovering the defensive steel that has marked the majority of their campaign will be the Sea Eagles’ top priority before taking on the big, physical Souths side. Nullifying the impact of Sam Burgess, as the Roosters did on Thursday, is also critical.

What the Rabbitohs need to go right: Souths appeared rudderless with Adam Reynolds sidelined; they require the linchpin halfback, and his lieutenant Luke Keary, to take control early. The duo was brilliant when the Rabbitohs downed the Sea Eagles at the SCG last month, and they will be the key for the myrtle-and-cardinal again next weekend.

Personnel: On top of the likely season-ending injuries to key players Jamie Buhrer and Matt Ballin, the Sea Eagles may also be without fullback superstar Brett Stewart, who sat out the clash with the Cowboys. The Rabbitohs, on the other hand, will welcome back Reynolds and Ben Te’o from suspension in a virtually full-strength line-up.

Wildcard: The Sea Eagles have not been rewarded for finishing second, with this encounter scheduled for Allianz Stadium rather than their Brookvale fortress where they have lost just once all year. The crowd support will favour the Rabbitohs and could tip the scales in their favour.

Early tip: Sea Eagles by 2

Sydney Roosters (1) v Penrith Panthers (4)

Saturday 5:50pm at Allianz Stadium

A sensational performance against the Warriors has catapulted the Penrith Panthers into the top four, but their reward is a dubious one – a red-hot Sydney Roosters outfit that snared the minor premiership on the back of six straight wins.

Matt Moylan (L) could be the wildcard for the Panthers. Photo: Getty

What the Roosters need to go right: The Roosters’ recent winning streak has coincided with the return to form of halves Mitchell Pearce and James Maloney. The deposed NSW Origin combo has played with renewed confidence in recent weeks, and the Tricolours will be difficult to topple if their linchpins produce another big game. The Roosters’ attack has been crisp, direct and purposeful of late, and their defence customarily resolute – aside from a late lapse in their win over Souths.

What the Panthers need to go right: Penrith’s 22-6 victory over the Warriors was built on a flying start and outstanding completions. The NRL’s fairytale club of 2014 requires a repeat in both departments to come near the defending champs; they will struggle to run down the Roosters if they give up an early lead.

Personnel: The injury-wracked Panthers’ replacements continue to turn up and do the job, while James Segeyaro’s return this weekend was a huge boost. The Roosters are missing wonderful hooker Jake Friend through injury and Origin backrower Aidan Guerra will be out suspended after a brain snap and ugly chicken-wing tackle.

Wildcard: Matt Moylan has emerged as a genuine match-winner for the Panthers this season and his creativity from fullback gives the underdogs a real hope in this encounter, but their six-day turnaround – compared to the Roosters’ nine days – could be telling for a side that has been fighting a losing battle in the war of attrition for months.

Early tip: Roosters by 10

North Queensland Cowboys (5) v Brisbane Broncos (8)

Saturday 7:55pm at 1300SMILES Stadium

Jason Taumalolo has been a game-breaker for the Cowboys. Photo: Getty

They ultimately missed out on a coveted top-four spot, but the in-form North Queensland Cowboys were superb in thumping Manly in round 26 and will start comfortable favourites in their sudden-death showdown with the Brisbane Broncos, who sweated it out all weekend before falling into the last finals spot despite going down to Melbourne.

What the Cowboys need to go right: Burnt by refereeing shockers in the past two finals series, a decent rub of the green is critical for the Cowboys – but getting into the right headspace is potentially the biggest obstacle confronting the northerners. North Queensland has the ability to blow any team off the park but tend to crumble if things don’t go their way, as demonstrated in the fortunate golden point win over wooden spooners Cronulla in round 25.

What the Broncos need to go right: Brisbane’s fortunes in 2014 have hinged on the performances of breakout halfback gun Ben Hunt. When the playmaker stars, the Broncos invariably win, but week-to-week consistency has still been an issue. Hunt’s one-on-one duel with Johnathan Thurston will decide the Broncos’ fate.

Personnel: Sam Thaiday returns from suspension for the Broncos, while the Cowboys are set to name an unchanged line-up.

Wildcard: Cowboys wrecking ball Jason Taumalolo has developed into a regular game-breaker, and the Broncos’ questionable muscle up front will be strenuously tested by the dynamic young Kiwi.

Early tip: Cowboys by 14

Melbourne Storm (6) v Canterbury Bulldogs (7)

Sunday 4:10pm at AAMI Park

The Melbourne Storm sealed a finals spot with a high-quality 22-12 defeat of the Broncos, but other unfavourable results denied them a top-four berth and sent them into the sudden-death half of the post-season draw. But their opponents the Canterbury Bulldogs are in all sorts of trouble, reeling from a diabolical golden point defeat to the struggling Gold Coast (after leading 18-0 at halftime) to cap a dramatic loss of form in the latter rounds of the season.

The fitness of Cameron Smith (rear) could have a huge impact on Sunday’s final. Photo: Getty

What the Storm need to go right: The likes of Jesse Bromwich, Kevin Proctor and Ryan Hoffman need to meet the Bulldogs’ vaunted pack head-on, laying a platform for Cooper Cronk, Cameron Smith and Billy Slater to work off. Winning the battle of the middle third will virtually ensure victory for the Storm, who have far more attacking weaponry wider of the ruck than the Bulldogs.

What the Bulldogs need to go right: Posting points has been the Bulldogs’ Achilles heel during their 2-6 record over the last eight weeks of the regular season. James Graham and Greg Eastwood need to step up and aid struggling halves Trent Hodkinson and Josh Reynolds in the ball-playing department, creating space and chances for blockbusting centre Tim Lafai and the other less threatening members of the Canterbury backline.

Personnel: In what would be a huge blow to a Bulldogs side already on a downward spiral, Tony Williams is facing a suspension after being put on report for a shoulder-charge and high contact. Meanwhile, Cameron Smith is rated a 50-50 proposition of lining up after sustaining an ankle injury in the Storm’s win over the Broncos.

Wildcard: This encounter could swing on Smith’s availability. The captain returned after halftime to see out Friday’s match – and Smith on one leg would be worth the risk – but it could send the Storm into a tailspin if he is ruled out. On the Bulldogs’ side of the fence, pugnacious pair Michael Ennis and Josh Reynolds could tip the scales towards the visitors if the match develops into an arm-wrestle. Canterbury pipped Melbourne 6-4 at AAMI Park in round 18 – the Bulldogs’ last decent 80-minute display.

Early tip: Storm by 18