ANALYSIS

On Wednesday, Malcolm Turnbull will celebrate his first anniversary as Prime Minister.

To do it he has had to survive a near-death election and endure unrelenting interference from the man he deposed and his most zealous supporters.

The view of Tony Abbott’s chief of staff Peta Credlin that the PM has been a bitter disappointment can in no small way be sheeted home to the price Mr Turnbull had to pay to ensure his coup had the numbers.

He had to promise that the policy structure created by Mr Abbott would be left essentially in place. Never mind that this served to undermine almost everything he was known and admired for.

The marriage equality plebiscite is a case in point. Despite his prescient criticism before he became party leader that the national opinion poll would only serve as an unnecessary distraction. It is now more than that, it has become a proxy battleground within his party to undermine him.

In doing so we are seeing an open split between the left and right of the Liberals. The conservatives are demanding $20 million of taxpayers’ money be added to the cost of the non-binding plebiscite. The left or moderates are arguing strenuously against it. The conservatives are now threatening to vote against the plebiscite legislation unless the funding is allocated.

Mr Abbott came on to parliament’s doors to add his support for the expensive blowout. It would push the cost of the plebiscite to at least $180 million at a time when Treasurer Scott Morrison is arguing for every dollar he can get for “budget repair”.

Peta Credlin was chief of staff to Tony Abbott. Photo: AAP

Mr Abbott’s outspokenness was no rare event. In the past week he has given radio and press interviews where he criticised the Turnbull government’s failure on free speech, political donation reform, the Northern Territory child detention royal commission and reforms to superannuation.

Talk about look at me.

What must really irk him is the fact that the biggest achievements of the Turnbull government are in fact the Abbott government’s, like free trade deals and stopping the boats. Something Labor homed in on in parliament.

Mr Turnbull’s real problem is the anniversary comes in the wake of an election that saw the Coalition losing 14 seats, three senators and as Ms Credlin says, its moral authority.

But from a woman who is widely seen as a major contributor to the failure of the Abbott enterprise – she was his chief of staff and ruled with an iron fist – her gratuitous advice in Monday’s The Australian on how Mr Turnbull should lift his game shows a lot of chutzpah if not delusion.

The PM and Treasurer Scott Morrison face some tough times ahead. Photo: AAP

She clearly thinks that the Turnbull office has a hopeless communications strategy compared to the Abbott one she ran. She spells out how the leader has to consult backbenchers more and tailor his message for the different circumstances in regions around the country.

It worked a treat for Mr Abbott didn’t it? In fact much of her advice would be obvious to political old hands. What it really shows though, is that no amount of spin or interviews on major radio and TV shows makes up for tin eared policies and an anachronistic world view that does not resonate with contemporary voters.

That’s where the gibe that Mr Turnbull was loved in seats that don’t determine elections and now reviled in those that do is a stretch. So too is former prime minister John Howard’s advice that Mr Turnbull should not return to his preferred position to the left of where he now is but should be even more conservative.

That worked a treated for conservative powerbroker Eric Abetz in Tasmania. His merry band of right wing culture warriors were swept out of parliament.

The big question now is will there be a second anniversary for Malcolm Turnbull.

Paul Bongiorno AM is a veteran of the Canberra Press Gallery, with 40 years’ experience covering Australian politics. He tweets  at @PaulBongiorno

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