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PM’s ‘dangerous’ emissions target unpicked

Tony Abbott and Environment Minister Greg Hunt announce the new target.

Tony Abbott and Environment Minister Greg Hunt announce the new target.

The Prime Minister who once described manmade climate change as “absolute crap” has unveiled his plan to cut Australia’s carbon emissions.

And, if you believe him, it’s great news.

Promising a reduction of 26 (and possibly 28) per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, the target is “fairly and squarely in the middle of comparable economies”, Tony Abbott told journalists on Tuesday.

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“It’s not quite as high as the Europeans on 34 per cent on 2005 figures. It’s better than the Japanese at 25 per cent. It’s vastly better than the Koreans at four per cent.

“And it’s immeasurably better than the Chinese, who would actually increase emissions by 150 per cent between now and 2030.”

Broelman - August 12 (emissions - CMYK)Well, that’s good, isn’t it? We’re finally doing our bit.

Actually, no. By most accounts, the Coalition’s plan is woefully inadequate, putting Australia at the bottom of the OECD, on a par with other laggards Japan, New Zealand and Canada.

The main objection is that if all countries adopted similar targets to Australia, then global warming would soar past the two degrees that scientists consider manageable.

Here’s what John Connor, chief executive of the Climate Institute, said: “This target fails tests both of scientific credibility and economic responsibility in a world increasingly focused on modernising and cleaning up energy as well as economic systems.”

Greens MP Adam Bandt, meanwhile, called it a “weak and dangerous target from a weak and dangerous government”.

Are the critics right? We examined three of the key claims the government used to sell its new target. We found them at best misleading, at worst false.

Statement 1

Tony Abbott and Environment Minister Greg Hunt announce the new target.

Tony Abbott and Environment Minister Greg Hunt announce the new target.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott: “This is fairly and squarely in the middle of comparable economies.”

This statement is completely false if by ‘comparable economies’ you include Germany, the UK, the USA, Norway, Switzerland and Europe as a whole.

Next to these countries, Australia is quite simply the bottom of the pack, according to the Climate Institute’s figures.

Mr Abbott’s statement only acquires a shred of truth when you compare it exclusively to New Zealand, Canada and Japan. Then Australia doesn’t look quite so bad.

But these nations are all doing a rotten job of curbing their carbon emissions. They have already announced the targets that they will take to Paris in December. And according to Climate Change Tracker, each one is ‘inadequate’.

Mr Abbott was also keen to compare Australia to China and South Korea. While on the face of it Australia looks better than these two nations, it is an ‘apple and oranges’ comparison. South Korea only very recently emerged from its period of industrialisation, while China is still going through it.

Verdict: False

Statement 2

Prime Minister Tony Abbott: “When it comes to emissions per capita, our reduction of at least 50 per cent will be the highest in the developed world of the countries that have already declared themselves.”

This is technically true, but it is also extremely misleading.

A 50 per cent reduction sounds good, but it leaves out some key information.

First of all, Australia already has the highest per capita carbon emissions in the OECD. Only the USA and Canada are anywhere near Australia.

Secondly, if Australia does halve its per capita emissions by 2030, it will still have the highest per capita carbon emissions in the OECD, according to the Climate Institute.

Verdict: Misleading

Statement 3

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The government plans to reach the target without any change to the renewable energy target, and without requiring businesses to curb their emissions at all.

Environment Minister Greg Hunt: “The government will meet Australia’s 2030 target through policies built on the successful direct action plan, in particular the emissions reduction fund and its safeguard mechanism.”

Currently the government is working towards reducing its carbon emissions by five per cent of its 2000 levels by 2020.

It is doing this by using the $2.55 billion emissions reduction fund to pay ‘carbon farmers’ to dream up creative ways of reducing the nation’s carbon emissions, such as carbon capture and planting trees.

But as The New Daily revealed in April, the government is on track to dramatically fail to reach its target.

That Mr Hunt intends to use the same strategy to meet a much more ambitious target suggests he may be banking on a good deal of luck.

Part of that luck may include Australian businesses and households becoming more energy efficient of their own accord, through things like solar panel installations. Mr Hunt even admitted he was banking on this happening.

Verdict: Blind optimism

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