Counting is underway in the NSW state election with early exit polls pointing to a comfortable victory for the incumbent Coalition led by Premier Mike Baird.

Polls across the state closed at 6:00pm (AEDT) and the Labor Party, led by Luke Foley, will need a uniform swing of 14.7 per cent to have a chance of forming its own majority government.

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Labor is hoping to pick up between 10 and 15 seats today, but that would not be enough to unseat the incumbents.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said he believed the Coalition would hang on to gain re-election.

“The figures we’re using tonight, is that the Coalition are on 69 seats, Labor on 20, with two Greens … and there are two independents,” Mr Green said.

“You need 47 seats for majority in the NSW Parliament.

“The Government’s got 69, they can afford to lose up to 21 or 22 seats before they lose government. That’s a swing of about 14 per cent.”

Deputy Premier and Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian said she believed Labor would win back seats, but it was important to reduce those losses.

“We’re fighting for our lives to make sure we keep as many seats as possible,” Ms Berejiklian said.

“There’s no doubt we’re expecting a huge correction. Labor’s vote was at its lowest in nearly a century last election.

“We always knew there’d be a correction and the whole purpose of tonight will be to see how far that correction goes.

“There’s no doubt out there on the polling booths today the base Labor vote did come back to Labor which they lost at the last election.

“That was always going to happen, but how far that goes is obviously something we’ll find out in the next couple of hours.”

Ms Berejiklian said local issues would also affect voting patterns in different parts of the state.

“In some areas where you would expect traditionally bigger swings, you will find it to be quite minimal but in other parts of the state, like the north coast, we are anticipating larger swings,” Ms Berejiklian said.

“I don’t think there will be a consistent swing across the state.

“It will be very difficult to assess what seats we’ll hang on to and what we won’t until later in the evening.”

Baird, Foley cast votes, predict close contest

Earlier today, the Premier and his wife Kerryn cast their votes at Queenscliff surf club on Sydney’s northern beaches and Mr Baird said he expected a close contest.

“We feel good. It’s a tight race, I mean this is going to be tight and I think we’ve said it all along,” he said.

“But I think we’ve put forward one of the most positive plans this state has ever seen.”

The Premier was surrounded by a scrum of cameras as he spelt out his surname for the polling booth worker looking for his name on the Manly electoral roll.

He cast his ballot, then later confirmed there were no prizes for guessing who he had voted for.

“I voted for myself, I have to be honest about that,” Mr Baird said, laughing.

Meanwhile, NSW Labor leader Luke Foley was upbeat when casting his vote with his wife Edel at Concord West Public School.

Mr Foley was not able to vote for himself because he lives just outside his electorate of Auburn.

He said it had been a good contest.

“Here to vote with Edel. Edel’s first vote. She became an Australian citizen last year, excited to vote. Mr Baird’s letters had no effect on Edel,” he said.

“Looking forward to a good night, so thanks for coming, all good – a wonderful day. A democratic contest.

“As I said when Mike Baird and I were on a TV show [and] they asked me what I thought of Mike Baird, I said: ‘good bloke and my second pick for premier today’.”

Labor Luke Foley with wife Edel as she casts her vote in the NSW election. Photo: AAP