New South Wales Premier Mike Baird is set for a comfortable win at Saturday’s state election, with the Coalition maintaining a clear lead over Labor in a new poll.

According to the Morgan Poll released on Tuesday, the Coalition leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, 56 to 44 per cent.

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The Baird government is also ahead of Labor on the primary vote, 45.5 to 32.5 per cent.

Mr Baird continues to defy the “Abbott effect” theory, which has been blamed for the fall of the Coalition governments in Queensland and Victoria.

The 46-year-old former investment banker is Australia’s most popular premier with an approval rating of 60 per cent.

He is ahead of opposition leader Luke Foley as preferred premier in the Morgan Poll, 65 to 35 per cent.

Mr Foley has only had three months in the top job to impress voters, and is still relatively unknown among the NSW population.

Roy Morgan chairman Gary Morgan said the Coalition had a “significant” lead and expected the party to comfortably win on Saturday.

“All signs point to a comfortable victory for the NSW L-NP Coalition despite losses in recent elections in Queensland, Victoria and a year ago in South Australia,” Mr Morgan said.

The Baird government is still expected to lose several seats at the election after winning power in 2011 with a two-party-preferred margin of 56 to 44 per cent.