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Will Mike Baird’s smile be decisive in the election?

AAP

AAP

New South Wales Premier Mike Baird is the most popular leader in Australia.

His approval rating sits at 60 per cent, and his Coalition government leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis, 55.5 to 44.5 per cent.

The 46-year-old father-of-three appears to be made of Teflon.

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Mike Baird reads mean tweets about himself

Corruption scandals, the woes of the federal Liberal Party and an unpopular plan to privatise the state’s electricity network have failed to stick to the premier, leaving his approval rating sky high.

So what’s the secret behind the former investment banker’s popularity? How far can a winning smile take him?

NSW ELECTION

On a roll: the Premier and his team.

“Mike Baird has found the formula to win,” Roy Morgan poll manager Julian McCrann says.

“Baird is a fresh face and is probably still in the honeymoon period since he’s been in the job for less than a year.

“He’s obviously a personable fellow and always seem to have that smile on his face.”

Ipsos polling director Jessica Elgood says the Premier has presented himself as a safe pair of hands.

“I’d put it down to leadership” Ms Elgood says.

“Baird hasn’t necessarily done a good job but he essentially hasn’t put a foot wrong.

“I think the Lindt Cafe siege episode allowed him good exposure and I think most people will say he presented well through that and showed strong leadership.

“He hasn’t dropped the ball yet.”

Corruption

AAP

Former Premier Barry O’Farrell resigned under a cloud of controversy. Photo: AAP

Mr McCrann says Mr Baird has handled the issue of corruption within his party well, including moving several MPs who accepted banned donations to the backbench.

“They’ve had good optics on these issues because it looks like they’re trying,” he says.

“It’s being respected.

“When asked who was the best party to manage corruption, 36 per cent of people said Liberal, while 18 per cent said Labor.”

Mr McCrann says voters are still nursing a hangover from the corruption of the last NSW Labor government, and calls Mr Baird a “good contrast”.

“I don’t think the people of New South Wales have forgotten about Labor, and Baird is such a friendly, personable fellow.”

The Abbott effect

The experts agree Mr Baird has been able to cushion his state from the “Abbott effect” which helped wipe out the Queensland and Victorian Coalition governments.

Tony Abbott Mike Baird

Mike Baird hasn’t bulked at opportunities to be appear with Prime Minister Tony Abbott.

Ms Elgood says the Premier handled the issue better than his interstate counterparts, suggesting he has learned from Mr Abbott’s negative impact on the Queensland and Victorian election campaigns, with former Queensland Premier Campbell Newman declaring he didn’t need Mr Abbott’s help.

“I think he’s quite clever,” Ms Elgood says.

“He hasn’t come across as being disloyal to Abbott in any way, but he’s managed to keep a bit of distance. That’s quite smart media handling.

“He doesn’t look like a backstabber by saying he doesn’t want to associate with Abbott. People see him as a man of integrity.”

“Courageous” policy

A Victorian CFMEU official is warning against the privatisation of the poles and wires in NSW.

People might not like the Coalition’s sale of poles and wires, but they certainly respect it.

Even though his plans to privatise the state’s electricity network are unpopular, Mr McCrann says voters will respect him for being willing to stake his job on the policy.

“He’s being honest by saying it’s unpopular but he’s still advocating it. People might not like it but they will respect it,” he says.

Mr McCrann likens it to John Howard introducing GST at the 1998 federal election, even though the majority of people were against it.

“Because of the fact he was going to put his leadership on the line and take it to the election, he ended up scraping home and went on to win further elections,” he says.

“It was an issue at the time but when he stated his case and won the election, people got behind him.”

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