Daniel Andrews is often chided by his inner circle for having been born “40 years old” because he swapped a decade or two of partying like most young men for more grown-up pursuits like politics and golf.

The strategy appears to have worked so far as the serious young insect of the Victoria Labor Party (he’s actually 42) is now in the box seat to become Victoria’s next Premier on November 29.

Unless there is a big late swing to the Liberal Party, the tall, slightly hunched, bespectacled life-long political operator just has to survive the final 14 days to claim the crown.

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Victoria hasn’t had a one-term government since the mid-1950s. But Premier Denis Napthine, according to every opinion poll, is staring into the abyss of defeat and his Liberal Party facing a post-election period of bloody internal feuding and retribution.

First, some history. Liberal Ted Baillieu won the 2010 state election by one seat, with a few hundred votes in the south-eastern electorate of Bentleigh.

One insider says at planning meetings after the surprise win over the John Brumby-led government, senior Liberals joked they had really only planned for holidays, not for government.

Baillieu, a “small l Liberal”, lasted just 27 months, gradually slipping in the polls and being widely criticised for being too slow to act or react.

He was undermined from within. Frankston Liberal MP Geoff Shaw resigned from the parliamentary Liberal party on March 6 last year, dramatically stripping the government of its one-seat majority.

Baillieu walked away that night without answering one question.

Victorian Premier Denis Napthine faces an uphill battle at the polls.

The shock departure thrust Napthine in the Premier’s position, a fallback strategy hurriedly slapped together to steady the Liberal ship and stop any of the younger MPs – Michael O’Brien and Matthew Guy – getting any ideas above their station.

Shaw’s unpredictable behaviour presented a backdrop of chaos for Napthine, the 62-year-old happy-go-lucky former country vet, who some unkindly refer to as ‘Dr Doolittle’ or even ‘Denis Nap Time’.

But he attacked the job with gusto, determined to prove he wasn’t just an “accidental Premier” and that his low ratings as Opposition leader many years ago could be overcome.

Despite inheriting successive budget surpluses and Triple A credit rating, Victoria’s jobless rate has risen to 6.8 per cent, battered by the closure announcements at Ford, Holden, Toyota and Alcoa Geelong.

The Liberal/National coalition needed a big jobs-generating, confidence-boosting, congestion-busting project; one that would generate jobs and silence the critics in the media and party and kickstart the campaign to win a second term.

So despite having won the 2010 election with a policy of not building the East West tunnel, the Napthine government took the gamble, rolling the dice on a $6.8 billion project that may just boot them out of power.

East West link or bust

Even for a kid with a crayon, the East West link looks like a no-brainer, as it’s the missing link, joining the Eastern Freeway with the CityLink toll system in the north and the west.

However, the project is not just costly but divisive. Those in the eastern and western suburbs who may use the tunnel think it’s great.

The East West Link is an 18km road project linking the Eastern Freeway to the Western Ring Road.

And while car travel still dominates in Melbourne, many of the 400,000 daily commuters on a public transport system that can spectacularly fail just when you need to get somewhere are debating if the money would be better spent on long-term train, tram and bus services.

From saying it could be forced to build the project if contracts are signed, Labor now argues it won’t have to honour the contracts for legal and planning reasons, a tactic partly designed to present a clear choice and protect inner Labor-held seats from The Greens.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott has stumped up $1.5 billion for stage one of the tunnel but his federal budget infuriated many Liberals in Victoria, making Napthine’s battle even harder.

Labor’s banking that its alternative – separating 50 rail level crossings from road traffic – will have greater appeal to self-interest across all suburbs.

Road/rail separations don’t come cheap so Labor has announced it will sell the Port of Melbourne for about $5-6 billion to fund the massive promise.

Andrews tapping in birdies

Fifteen years ago the notion of huge public selloffs were taboo in the Labor Party (it even had a Pledge faction dedicated to fight selloffs) but now there was hardly a whimper when the Social Left-aligned leader of the Labor Party, Daniel Andrews, announced the policy.

Andrews may have joined the Socialist Left faction when young, but that faction is a broad church, from hardened Marxists to soft Left civil libertarians interested in public policy development.

Daniel Andrews … a keen golfer. Photo: AAP

Andrews has been patient for 24 years since he left school in Wangaratta, planning his career from Monash student, to electoral officer for MHR Alan Griffin, party organiser, assistant secretary, MP, Health Minister and now Opposition Leader.

He approaches politics a bit like golf: set up with a positive but cautious drive. Hit the green with next shot and then putt for birdie or par.

Daniel Andrews’ father Bob revealed recently he wrote in a scrapbook years ago that his son would be Premier of Victoria by 2006.

The ways things are looking, Bob was early and optimistic but probably right.

Napthine needs to swing perhaps about four or more per cent of the vote in two weeks. But many in his party, judging from their mood over the past week, believe Victorians marked their cards many months ago.

Brendan Donohoe is the State Political Reporter for the Seven Network.