Tony Abbott will meet Vladimir Putin in Beijing within the next 24 hours. The Russian media is reporting it. The Prime Minister’s office is confirming it. But if you’re looking for an amazing moment in history, similar to Labor’s Mark Latham on the eve of the 2004 federal election, forget it.

Remember that’s when Latham became overly physical, invading John Howard’s personal space and almost yanking him off his feet in one of the most physically aggressive handshakes you could imagine. There will be no cameras present and no one is saying exactly when or where the encounter will take place.

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The expectation for fireworks was created by the PM himself. Under provocation from the Opposition he promised he would “shirtfront” the Russian president over the murder of 38 Australians in the Malaysia Airlines atrocity over Ukraine. At the very least he believes the Russians were complicit in the crime. But it’s been the Australian Prime Minister who has been mugged by bigger global realities.

Tony Abbott arrives in China for the APEC summit. Photo: AAP

The “shirtfront” comment, evoking images of an Aussie Rules footballer flattening an opponent head on, has been well and truly replaced by something much less dramatic – a “robust conversation”. Bill Shorten says the Prime Minister overreached. At the time the Abbott cheer squad in the Australian media thought he was being a world leader in standing up to the Russian bully. The world eventually followed with sanctions against Putin in support of Kiev’s pro-EU government. But those sanctions on Russia are backfiring badly.

Far from being chastened Putin has looked east and won business and support from Beijing. According to the Putin-friendly Russian newsagency Tass, it’s a market for his energy resources, potentially bigger than the EU. And The Australian reports alarm bells are beginning to ring in world capitals – isolating and humiliating Moscow is not doing anything to improve world security.

Indeed, Mikhail Gorbachev, the champion of “perestroika” who saw the end of the Soviet Union, is warning that we may have already started a new cold war. He said that at the 25th anniversary celebrations for the fall of the Berlin wall.

Australia’s friends in America and Europe will be hoping Abbott and Putin sort out their differences before the weekend G20 summit in Brisbane.

The new relationship of convenience between Russia and China has the potential to develop into a powerful bloc. Keeping the lines of communication open is seen as crucially important.

Tony Abbott and Vladimir Putin in 2013. Photo: Getty

The Prime Minister says his secret meeting will be “about our absolute expectation that Russia will be as good as its word, that it will fully co-operate with the investigations that are underway and that it will do what it can to ensure justice is done”.

Tony Abbott is more hopeful than his Dutch counterpart.

Before the end of his recent Australian visit, Dutch PM Mark Rutte said he was not confident his investigators would ever get to the bottom of the aircraft’s downing.

Paul Bongiorno AM is a veteran of the Canberra Press Gallery, with 40 years’ experience covering Australian politics. He is Contributing Editor for Network Ten, appears on Radio National Breakfast and writes a weekly column on national affairs for The New Daily. He tweets at @PaulBongiorno