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Australia is set to pay a high price for Iraq conflict

Getty

Getty

Tony Abbott is trying desperately not to repeat the mistakes of the past in Iraq. He is helped by terrorists who put their atrocities on television for all to see. No questionable intelligence there. But what is he really committing to?

It has all the appearances of a never-ending war.

The Prime Minister shies away from the term ‘war’. America’s Secretary of State John Kerry was similarly reluctant until he finally conceded this weekend: “Yes, we are at war with ISIL (the so called Islamic State terrorists).”

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Whatever you call the military commitment, Kerry would agree with Abbott when he says “it is a mission to be ready to join an international coalition to destroy this hideous death cult.”

While Mr Abbott chooses his language carefully, defence experts have no doubt Australia is going in boots and all and it’s going to cost a lot of money.

Dr Mark Thomson, an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, says deploying 600 military personnel, eight Super Hornets, a refueller and a surveillance aircraft will cost in the vicinity of $400 million a year. Our 2003 invasion involvement cost all up close to  $3 billion.

Another expert, Dr John Blaxland, a senior fellow at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at ANU, says: “This is a commitment that is probably going to involve multiple rotations. It’s going to leave the ADF with limited capacity to do much else.”

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Iraqi Shiite militia fighters ride in a truck after pushing back Islamic State (IS) militants. Photo: Getty

The open ended Afghan deployment, running more than a decade, cost $9.3 billion.

The Prime Minister admits our involvement would be a matter of months rather than weeks. His Attorney General, George Brandis, says “it’s impossible to put a time limit on it.” And that worries Greens Leader, Christine Milne. She’s the only party leader to question the wisdom of this war fever.

“This war has no time frame attached to it except getting involved in another quagmire in the Middle East.”

So far the closest Mr Abbott has come to spelling out benchmarks for success was on ABC TV’s Breakfast.

“If the Iraqi government, the Kurdish regional government, are able to maintain reasonable control over their substantial towns, if they are able to provide reasonable protection for their own people, that will be a success.”

By that yard stick we would probably still be in Afghanistan. But there are no quibbles from the Opposition.

“This decision hasn’t been taken lightly,” Bill Shorten says. “Australia has a role in defeating this evil.”

However, Labor is not so supportive of the Prime Minister’s week in Arnhem Land. It accuses him of short-changing Indigenous Australians and says the government has slashed $500 million from Indigenous programs.

Frontline services dealing with family violence, alcohol abuse, health and legal aid have seen their funding shrink or disappear.

“If Tony Abbott wants to help close the gap, it is not enough to simply visit Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people,” Mr Shorten told reporters. “He needs to renew his commitment by reversing his unfair cuts and broken promises and lies to indigenous Australians.”

The government says it is still pumping $4.8 billion into aboriginal affairs and is taking a new approach with positive signs.

However you look at it, the battle to bridge the gap between Indigenous Australia and the rest of the community is as never-ending as defeating the hydra-headed monster of Islamic extremism, regardless of how much money is thrown at it.

Paul Bongiorno AM is a veteran of the Canberra Press Gallery, with 40 years’ experience covering Australian politics. He is Contributing Editor for Network Ten, appears on Radio National Breakfast and writes a weekly column on national affairs for The New Daily. He tweets at @PaulBongiorno

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