Polling places have closed for New Zealand’s election and votes are being tallied, with results to be released throughout the night.

Pre-election polls pointed to a high likelihood of a change of government, with centre-right opposition National likely to lead a three-party coalition.

If the polls are correct, that would make first-term MP and former Air New Zealand chief executive Chris Luxon the new prime minister.

It would also end Labour’s two terms in office, which began with Jacinda Ardern as leader in 2017 until January this year when she resigned and was replaced by Chris Hipkins.

The six-week election campaign – dubbed the battle of the Chrises – has been a heavily negative contest, with National attacking Labour’s record and Labour attacking National’s policy prescriptions.

It is one of the reasons minor parties are predicted to do well, with roughly a third of votes expected to go to smaller parties.

The Greens are polling at 15 per cent, which would be their best-ever result.

At this election, the six parties expected to win parliamentary representation fall into two camps.

There is the left bloc, comprising Labour and the Greens – who are currently in government – and the Maori Party.

On the right, there is National and right-wingers ACT, as well as populists New Zealand First, led by veteran Winston Peters.

Mr Peters has played kingmaker at previous elections, but in 2023 has signed an oath not to support Labour back into government, effectively aligning him with the right.

POSSIBLE ELECTION OUTCOMES

There are a number of possible outcomes that could play out on election night, including these four, in descending order of probability:

• 1 – National leads a three-party coalition

All polls released in the past month suggest National can only reach a parliamentary majority with the help of right-wingers ACT and NZ First.

Mr Peters’ party is on track for a return to parliament after being voted out at the last election.

• 2 – National can govern with ACT alone

This is National and ACT’s preferred option, with both Mr Luxon and ACT leader David Seymour warning New Zealanders against voting for NZ First.

They believe they can be more effective without Mr Peters, who is a notoriously tough negotiator and erratic decision-maker in government.

• 3 – An unclear result

Saturday’s count is only a preliminary count with “special votes”, including overseas and out-of-electorate ballots, to be included at a later date.

Special votes tend to favour the parties of the left.

If the combined left bloc is projected to win a narrow minority – for example 58 MPs of the 120-seat parliament – it could argue the result is unclear until special votes come in.

That could lead to an awkward three-week delay for coalition talks or a government formation, given results are finalised on November 3.

• 4 – Labour is returned, with its own three-party coalition

It’s been four months since a single poll pointed to success for the left, but polls tightened in the final fortnight.

Given Mr Hipkins’ party trails in the polls, its only plausible pathway to power would be a coalition with the Greens and the Maori Party.

Mr Hipkins has likened that result to Paul Keating’s triumph for Labour in 1993, which he termed “the sweetest victory of all”.

Votes across the Tasman

Australian-based voters were among the first to cast ballots in the NZ election when overseas-based voting and dictation voting began on September 27.

There are predictions of a higher-than-usual expatriate turnout due to passions over NZ’s COVID-19 response and, in Australia, the open-door citizenship offer to Kiwis from Anthony Albanese’s government.

Advance voting for regular NZ-based voters began on October 2.

More than 1.16 million votes were cast before election day, with expectations of at least a million more cast on Saturday.

-AAP