Former Liberal leader John Hewson has openly said what others have been too afraid to: weâre in the midst of a property bubble.
Dr Hewson, who has a PhD in economics, said parts of Sydney and Melbourne (and possibly Brisbane) are in a âbubbleâ and a âhousing crisisâ that risks a US-style âbig correctionâ.
âThe bubbleâs there because of the pace at which prices have risen. The market is now out of reach of so many people,â he told The New Daily.
âWe have very strong demand from the natural rate of population growth plus immigration. But weâve allowed that to be accentuated by investor demand, through artificial, favourable tax concessions; by foreign demand; and by self-managed super fund demand.â
This is a âdifficult situationâ to remedy, said Dr Hewson, a former Reserve Bank employee and Macquarie Bank director, because the Australian banks are âexposedâ to high leverage on mortgages.
So any government intervention to slacken this artificially-stimulated demand risks dire consequences, he said. âThere are no silver bullets.â
This followed his very frank comments to ABC Lateline on Tuesday night, where he repeated the warning of a property market âcrisisâ created by âneglect and driftâ.
Watch Dr Hewsonâs ABC interview:
The former Liberal politicianâs comments contrast starkly with those of major bank CEOs, big-name property developers like Harry Triguboff, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison, who have all assiduously avoided the B-word.
An economic âbubbleâ is when prices rise far above the true economic value of an asset â in this case, dwellings.
But heâs in good company with former Commonwealth Bank CEO David Murray, ASIC boss Greg Medcraft and Treasury secretary John Fraser.
The Reserve Bank, tasked by Parliament with preserving the âeconomic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australiaâ, recently strayed as close to candidness as is possible for a regulator that can panic markets with a single word.
Its latest coded warning: there has been âa build-up of risks associated with the housing marketâ.
This was buried at the bottom of the minutes of the RBA boardâs March meeting, published on Tuesday. It was the briefest of mentions, but many experts read into it deeply.
The bank noted rising property prices in Melbourne and Sydney, the âconsiderableâ number of apartments coming onto the market over the next few years, resurgent growth in investor lending, and household debt rising faster than household income.
The implicit warning was confirmed later on Tuesday when the Financial Review reported that three regulators â the RBA, ASIC and APRA â have formed a working group to explore tougher mortgage lending rules on the banks.
Whether the word âbubbleâ passes their lips or not, the experts are worried.








