The Reserve Bank is confident business investment will increase in the coming months, but is still not offering any hints on the timing of its next interest rate move.

The RBA has reiterated its stance that it won’t be changing the cash rate any time soon, and it is widely expected a rise will not come until the second half of 2015.

However, the minutes of the Reserve Bank’s September board meeting show it is getting slightly more confident about the economic outlook.

“Measures of business conditions had improved and there was evidence suggesting that growth in non-mining business investment would pick up modestly over the coming quarters,” the RBA said in the minutes.

But concerned on property

The RBA is also increasingly worried about the possibility that speculation in the housing market could derail the economic outlook.

Of course, the central bank would never use a word like “worry”.

It “notes” the risks, is “cognisant” of them, and “observes” them.

But, although the minutes of the RBA’s monthly monetary policy meeting held two weeks ago don’t say so explicitly, it is clearly concerned.

The RBA made repeated references to the strength of lending for housing, particularly to investors, in the minutes released on Tuesday.

The RBA said easier access to wholesale funds had not led Australia’s banks to lower their lending standards “to date”, but it’s clear enough that it dearly wants to avoid that happening at some future date.

The board also highlighted the strength of investor demand for housing, particularly in Sydney but also, to a lesser extent, in Melbourne.

“Members further observed that additional speculative demand could amplify the property cycle and increase the potential for property prices to fall later,” the RBA said in the minutes.

Much of the RBA’s focus on bank lending standards is related to its statutory responsibility to safeguard the stability of the financial system.

But its concern over the potential for a housing market slump goes well beyond that.

“The mains risks in such a scenario would likely be to the stability of the macro-economy rather than the financial system, particularly if households were to react by cutting back on their spending,” the RBA said in the minutes.

Low interest rates are helping to support the economy “but policy also needs to be cognisant of the risks to future growth that could accompany a large further buildup in asset prices, particularly if was associated with a build-up in leverage (debt)”.

As it’s done after every meeting this year, the RBA flagged a “period of stability in interest rates”, implying it will keep the cash rate at 2.5 per cent for a few more months before eventually raising it as the economy picks up.

But the repeated references to the risk of stoking a housing market boom/bust cycle means the chances of another cut in the meantime, to hurry the pickup along, are currently very, very slim.