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RBA stuck on the sidelines

As the RBA announced the cash rate’s time at 2.5 per cent would be extended to a full year, it also signalled the likelihood of a much longer interval with no change.

The central bank last moved the cash rate in early August last year, so the decision to stay on hold this month, announced Tuesday afternoon, means the cash rate will stay at its record low until early August this year at least.

But it will almost certainly stay there for much longer, very possibly until well into 2015.

“On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates,” the RBA said in the usual brief announcement following its board’s monthly monetary policy meeting.

And the same factors – controlled inflation and below-trend economic growth – that induced the RBA to hold the cash rate steady over the preceding 11 months are still there.

“Overall, the Bank still expects growth to be a little below trend over the year ahead,” the RBA said, while inflation is expected to be in line with the two to three per cent target.

Another familiar theme was the balance between the stimulatory effect of low interest rates – what the RBA calls an “accommodative” setting for monetary policy – and the contractionary effect of the high Australian dollar.

“The exchange rate remains high by historical standards, particularly given the declines in key commodity prices, and hence is offering less assistance than it might in achieving balanced growth in the economy,” the RBA said.

So the RBA will stay in wait-and-see mode.

There’s even a chance – an off-chance, but it’s greater than zero – that the RBA will grow frustrated with the economy’s persistent below-par growth rate and actually lower the cash rate another quarter per cent or so.

But, more likely, the economy will eventually show more convincing signs of return to “trend” growth – the pace that will keep employment growing in line with the long-run growth of the supply of potential workers.

And when it does, the RBA will start making noises about nudging the cash rate higher, then eventually it will get around to doing it.

But, judging by the wording of the RBA’s announcement on Tuesday, there won’t be any such nudging for quite a few months yet.

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