The tree change and sea change so celebrated in television, film and literature in Australia is perhaps more myth than reality when it comes to the numbers.

Housing Industry Association chief economist Harley Dale says while there are people moving from the city to the regions, most of Australia’s population prefers the Big Smoke and surrounding suburbs for a variety of reasons, but primarily for employment.

“The rate of growth in the cities exceeds that of regional Australia and there is nothing to suggest that that trend will not continue.”

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“Not surprisingly, the population of Australia’s capital cities is growing considerably faster than the nation’s regional population,’’ Mr Dale says.

“Preliminary population estimates for 2013 (source: Australian Bureau of Statistics) highlight a 2.2 per cent growth rate for our capital cities compared to 1.4 per cent for aggregate regional Australia. As population goes, that’s a pretty chunky difference where aggregate capital city population growth is 1.6 times the rate of population growth for regional Australia.’’

Mr Dale says any sizeable movement to the cities to the bush was in large part smashed by the global financial crisis of 2009-2011. “There will always be an element of the population who see an advantage in moving from the city to the regions and the country,’’ he says.

“However the over-arching reality is that the rate of growth in the cities exceeds that of regional Australia and there is nothing to suggest that that trend will not continue. Yes, there is a sea change and a tree change but much of that population flow was rudely interrupted by the global financial crisis and is yet to fully recover from that crisis.

“As the finances from the early stage Baby Boomers continue their recovery you will see a significant section of this age cohort relocating away from capital cities.

“For the domestic population employment will dictate where people will live and most of the jobs in Australia are in the capital cities. Unless governments adopt a strategic decision to foster economic growth and employment opportunities outside our major capital cities the geographical composition of employment growth is unlikely to materially change. The vast majority of migrants relocating to Australia exercise a strong preference to live in the capital cities.’’

Spade Consultants director Chris McNeill says not all regional cities are growing, and not all are growing at the same rate. “Rather, there are significant differences in the roles various regional cities play and, similarly, in their future outlook,’’ says Mr McNeill, who is a former policy adviser to the Victorian division of the Urban Development Institute of Australia.

Mr McNeill says there are a number of factors which cause people to move to a regional city including employment opportunities, lifestyle choices, choosing to be close to family, the views and the affordability of housing.

“While employment opportunities may be strong in some areas, their remoteness may be an inhibiting factor in attracting new residents,’’ he says. “Similarly, while some areas may contain stunning scenery they may also be remote and do not have a city with critical mass.

“In this sense, remoteness is a major factor. More often than not, people are generally drawn to other people and services as well as proximity to a major metropolitan area. This becomes significant determinant in promoting growth.

“Given these factors, it comes as no surprise that in the Victorian context, Ballarat and Bendigo, as well as Geelong, have been the star performers in recent years.’’